share_log

华鹏飞(300350):转型智能物流、医疗 享行业高增长红利

華泰證券 ·  Jul 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  First coverage, giving the “increased holdings” rating company in 2015 through the acquisition of Bohan Weiye to transform the intelligent logistics and medical informatization service market, and the innovative outsourcing model fits the pace of rapid development of informatization upgrades in the medical industry to solve many pain points such as rapid customer growth and management. Currently, China Post Express, the main customer, provides demonstration effects and steady growth performance support, and is expected to enter other logistics giants in the future, greatly increasing profit and valuation levels. The “mobile nursing station” project in Sichuan Province has been promoted smoothly, and expansion outside the province can be expected. The company has a unique model, strong comprehensive service capabilities, good development trends in the downstream industry, and strong demand. Currently, the valuation is reasonable. It has been covered for the first time, and has been given an “increase in holdings” rating. The hardware+service integrated outsourcing model meets the needs of rapid upgrading of intelligent logistics. Bohan Weiye is one of the few handheld terminal equipment service providers in China that can provide integrated hardware+software+operation, maintenance and training services. It broke the hardware sales model dominated by the original PDA hardware manufacturer, solved many pain points such as equipment maintenance, update, personnel training, system management, and function upgrades in the rapid development of the express logistics industry, and achieved a specialized division of labor, forming a replicable promotion model in segmented fields. The smooth implementation and development of the EMS project has provided a good demonstration effect and stabilized the company's profit growth. It is estimated that in 2016, China Post Express alone will achieve profit growth of more than 10%. The company system has already entered the procurement inspection system of Debon and other logistics companies. It is currently in the trial stage. Customer feedback is good. It is expected that horizontal expansion within the industry will be achieved in the future, greatly increasing revenue and profit levels. Service medical informatization. The “mobile nursing station” has successfully promoted the upgrading of medical informatization with hospitals as the main body, is in full swing. Smart medical equipment has gradually penetrated from the top three hospitals to second- and third-tier hospitals. Bohan Weiye's “Mobile Nursing Station” one-stop integrated operation service has participated deeply in the promotion of China Telecom's “Internet+Healthcare” project, changing traditional hospitals to bid for hardware terminals, software systems, purchase WIFI, or traffic packages from the three major operators. The self-planning model has solved the difficulty of integration, high start-up capital investment, subsequent maintenance, and personnel training difficulties, etc., effectively reduced hospital operation and maintenance. Pressure, thereby speeding up the transformation of the Internet of Things in hospitals. Currently, promotion has been accelerated in Sichuan Province, and expansion outside the province is expected. The valuation is reasonable. Covering the “increased holdings” rating for the first time. Judging from industry comparisons, the company's PE level is above the industry average, but due to the high growth rate brought about by Bohan Weiye's future horizontal expansion, the company's 1.14 times PEG is at a lower level among comparable companies. Judging from history, the current valuation level is still at a low point after the transformation. Under the premise of predicting the growth of the company's handheld devices, the company's profits in 2016-2018 are estimated to be 137 million yuan, 159 million yuan, and 182 million yuan, and EPS of 0.46 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.61 yuan respectively, corresponding to current stock price-earnings ratios of 78.2 times, 67.5 times and 58.9 times, respectively. Considering that there is a possibility that the company will exceed expectations in terms of expanding new customers in the future, and that the new large-scale customers will greatly enhance the company's performance and valuation, give the company a valuation of 80 times to 85 times, with a target price of 36.8-39.1 yuan. Risk warning: The procurement process for large customers is long, and the equipment launch falls short of expectations. Changes in EMS's future PDA operation launch plans and operating prices have had a significant impact on performance. The progress of the “mobile nursing station” project in Sichuan may not meet expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment