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深冷股份(300540)新股研究:液化天然气产业领军企业

Research on Deep Cold shares (300540) New shares: a leader in the liquefied natural gas industry

海通證券 ·  Aug 10, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Natural gas liquefaction industry chain one-stop solution provider. The company deeply ploughs natural gas liquefaction technology and is the main supplier of natural gas liquefaction process packages and equipment in China. Main products include liquefied natural gas (LNG)

Device and liquid air separation device. Based on the core process package of natural gas liquefaction, the company has successively developed conventional natural gas liquefaction technology and equipment, coalbed methane liquefaction technology and equipment, coke oven gas liquefaction technology and equipment for different application fields. The company has rich resources in technology, experience, market and talent, and is an one-stop solution provider for the natural gas liquefaction industry chain in the industry. The operating income in 13-15 years is 367 million yuan, 511 million yuan and 454 million yuan respectively, which is highly competitive.

The company has industry first-mover advantage and technology leading advantage. The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises engaged in the research and development of natural gas liquefaction technology and related equipment, the technology development is more mature, and now it has the international mainstream natural gas liquefaction core technology, such as natural gas expansion process, nitrogen + methane expansion process and mixed refrigerant process (MRC). The company's technology continues to develop, a number of technologies have leading advantages, LNG devices and liquid air separation devices not only meet the needs of the domestic market, but also exported to the United Kingdom, India, Indonesia, Egypt, Chad and other countries. In addition, the company's rapid development in MRC has successfully broken the technological monopoly of foreign enterprises in domestic large and medium-sized LNG liquefaction plants and realized the import substitution of domestic technology.

LNG process packages and plants continue to benefit from the development of the natural gas industry. The company's performance growth in recent years mainly comes from the R & D and sales of LNG process packages and devices. From 2013 to 2015, the proportion of LNG income reached 83.75%, 90.87% and 87.14%, respectively. Due to the promotion of the national natural gas industry development policy and the huge application and development potential of natural gas, natural gas production and consumption are expected to continue to grow at a high speed. As an important storage, transportation and application mode of natural gas, LNG benefits from the sustained and stable development of the natural gas industry and provides a good development prospect for the company. The application of LNG in the field of transportation also promotes the continuous growth of demand in the future. With the aggravation of haze phenomenon in the whole country, the national attention to environmental protection, the increasing maturity of LNG vehicle technology and the increasing economy, the application of LNG in heavy truck, urban bus and ship has developed rapidly.

Fund-raising projects: the funds raised are mainly used for the main business and supplementary working capital, and are proposed to be invested in the natural gas liquefaction plant capacity expansion project (44.1 million), cryogenic liquefaction technology research and development center project (53.2 million), supplement the company's liquidity (200 million). Benefiting from the national natural gas industry development policy and the development potential of the natural gas industry, it will lay a policy foundation and market foundation for the implementation of the project.

Profit forecast. The number of new shares issued by the company is 20 million shares, the total share capital after the issue is 80 million shares, the total amount of funds raised is about 333 million yuan, the net capital raised is expected to be about 297 million yuan, and the issue price is 16.67 yuan per share. The EPS of diluted computing company from 2016 to 2018 is 1.10,1.37 and 1.76 yuan respectively. According to the comparable company's 16-year PE valuation, we give the company 35-40xPE in 2016, and the reasonable value range should be 38.5-44.0 yuan.

Risk hint: the development of the LNG industry slows down, the company's performance fluctuates, and the fund-raising projects do not meet expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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