share_log

澳至尊(2031.HK)新股报告

Australian Supreme (2031.HK) IPO report

羣益證券(香港) ·  Jul 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company is in charge of

(1) the multi-faceted marketing strategy and the sales and distribution network that are closely related to the brand image of "Australia Supreme" establish the market's leading position in the health and personal management product market; (2) enjoy the right of distributor distribution on the basis of reciprocal relationship with collection suppliers; and (3) to manage and sell customers to Hong Kong, rich and able.

Overview of the industry

During the historical recall period, the local demand for health supplements in Hong Kong increased, coupled with the entry of a large number of mainland tourists, retail sales increased from HK $3276.4 in 2010 to HK $4136.0 in 2014.

However, due to the decline in sales of major direct brand brands, the overall health supply market in Hong Kong began to decline in 2013 and 2014. As the USANA brand shifted its focus from Hong Kong to the Chinese market, sales fell sharply in 2013 and 2014. As the company is very heavy in the market, the decline in sales has had a negative impact on retail sales of health products as a whole.

Due to the continued decline in the sales volume of direct shipping services and the shortage of tourists in mainland China, the retail sales plan of Hong Kong's health rechargeable market will continue to decline at the beginning of the testing period. It is expected that direct sales will change at the end of the expected period, while domestic demand will grow slightly, so retail sales of health products will pick up in the expected period.

Milk grass, lemon oil, berries, fullerenes and queen bee products accounted for only 10.4% of the Hong Kong health food market in 2014. However, of the five categories, crude oil accounted for 4.0% of the largest sales in 2014. Milkweed (2.2%), raspberry (2.1%), queen bee (1.0%) and caryophyllene (1.0%). During the expected test period (2015-2019), all five product categories are expected to account for a larger share of the health recharge market. Macau's health supply industry has recorded strong growth in the retail market in the past, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.2% from 2010 to 2014. The retail market regulation model increased from 569 million Hong Kong dollars in 2010 to 1.634 million Hong Kong dollars in 2014, tripling the size of the domestic market in four years. Most of the market growth during the four-year return period was produced in 2011, when the growth of domestic local tourism tourists was at its peak, driving the decline of the health food market.

In the following years, in view of the increase in the spending power and disposable income of Chinese tourists, the holiday destinations of Chinese tourists were moved to the mainland countries, and the growth of the market for health supplements in Macao was also slightly slower.

It is expected that the market regulation model in 2015 will be closed as a whole, and the subsequent growth will slow to 2019, but the rate of increase will be lower than that in 2013 and 2014. It is estimated that the retail market regulation model in 2019 is 145.0 million Hong Kong dollars, and the expected complex annual growth rate is 1.1%. Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent crackdown campaign in the mainland is the main reason for predicting the closing of the market, because inbound tourists from China are the main driving force driving the increase in demand for health products in Macao. Without the support of the high spending power of inbound tourists, it is estimated that the sales volume of domestic tourists from China will be greatly reduced, and even if local demand is strong, it will not be enough to offset the decline in tourist sales.

Profit ability and duty number

Based on the historical records of the past three years, the revenue of the collection company has increased from HK $195.5 in 2014 to HK $210.8 in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%. The profit has decreased from HK $3.46 million in 2014 to HK $123 million in 2016. The increase in revenue during the period is mainly due to the increase in brand awareness as a result of the increase in promotional activities and the expansion of the "Australia Supreme" sales and distribution network. huh? Collection purpose

HK $145.4 (based on HK $1.00 per share) from this collection will be used for the following purposes: about 35 per cent will be used for further development and consolidation of brands. About 25% will be used to maintain, expand and improve the sales network, including (a) through the expansion of the custom store network in Hong Kong (one to three specialty stores by March 31, 2017 and four to seven stores by March 31, 2018) And (B) expand the consignment reply service and improve the sales franchise and shelves installed in consignor retail stores (one to three sales franchises before September 30, 2017 and three to five by March 31, 2018); about 17% will be used to develop business cooperation opportunities and large customer base. About 13% will be used for the combination of rich products, including (a) discussing with existing brand owners the strength and feasibility of developing new products; and (b) exploring opportunities for further business cooperation with other brands; and 10% will be used for general financing.

Valuation

According to the IPO price range of HK$0.80 to 1.20, the historical price-to-earnings ratio of Aussie is 48.8-73.2 times and the price-to-market ratio is about 3.08-3.53 times. A student listed in Hong Kong and involved in a small number of other products

The price-to-earnings ratio of 1112.HK, 2211.HK, 6893.HK and 6893.HK are about 54.5times and 4.33times, 23.7times and 0.29times, 100.4 times and 6.2times respectively. In view of the fact that the above shares are not directly comparable to each other, the valuation of Australian supremacy is stable to ensure that investors can focus on their own fundamentals. Although modern people pay attention to health, it is generally natural in recent years, that is, through balanced food and exercise, it has been replaced by food products such as pills. We can also gather income and profits. Therefore, we only recommend speculative exposure to this stock.

Negative factor

(1) focus mainly on suppliers' supply of well-known health and personal care products, and if there is a shortage or delay in the supply of related products, it may have a significant impact on business and business; (2) rely on the "Organic Nature" brand with HCL license to improve the sales and market awareness of the market. (3) the major supplier may issue a six-month notification agreement to the collection, in which case it may suffer significant adverse effects on business, business conditions and operating conditions; (4) affected by the uncertainty of the Australian market, including inventory of raw material supply and supply, labor cost hikes and Australian dollar rate movements. (5) the main supplier may modify its existing sales or marketing strategy, change its export strategy, reduce its sales or output, change its sales, or appoint other or sub-contractors who may be involved in the market during the market or planning to expand. (6) the degree of responsibility depends on the market acceptability of the brand name "Aojun" and the brand name of the collection products. If the merchant is tainted or invalid or fails to promote it effectively, it may have a significant adverse impact on the business and business.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment