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华鹏飞(300350):围绕大物流战略 打造移动信息化服务企业

國金證券 ·  Aug 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The investment logic “big logistics strategy” enhances core competitiveness, and revenue and profit grow simultaneously: the company gradually realizes information and resource sharing with third party enterprises through capital operations, and focuses on building a “big logistics” platform to achieve collaborative development in the three modules of supply chain information transmission, supply chain planning and construction, and resource provision strategy construction. In the first half of 2016, the company's net profit increased by 120%-150%, achieving significant growth. According to forecasts, in 2016-2018, the company's net profit compound annual growth rate will reach 60%, the compound annual revenue growth rate will reach 24%, and future profitability will continue to be promising. Acquire Bohan Weiye to build a logistics network informatization service enterprise: Bohan Weiye, the target of the company's acquisition, focuses on building an enterprise-grade mobile informatization integrated operation platform to become a large-scale mobile terminal equipment solution and operation service provider with core competitiveness. Bohan Weiye uses the operating model of charging for the number of terminals plus software outsourcing. EMS, the largest customer, has 90,000 PDA terminals, contributing more than 60% of Bohan Weiye's revenue. The company's epitaxial expansion has cut into logistics giants such as Debon and Shentong, and there is unlimited room for imagination in market expansion. Bohan Weiye plans to acquire 51% of Hongtu Chuangzhan's shares. Relying on Hongtu's excellent data collection, processing and processing capabilities, Bohan Weiye can help Bohan Weiye develop in the direction of the Internet of Things, smart cities, smart management, etc., while increasing the company's profit level. Share the dividends of the medical market and upgrade hospital IT with the “mobile nursing station system”: China's medical industry is inefficient, informatization needs and development potential are huge, and the original information system needs to be upgraded urgently. Bohan Weiye used Sichuan as the first mobile nursing station and took the lead in cooperating with Sichuan Telecom to rapidly develop the mobile medical market. The mobile nursing station system has improved information transmission efficiency, enriched information transmission channels, and optimized medical service processes. This innovative model is expected to be promoted throughout the country, bringing high growth and profit to the company. At present, the company has signed contracts with more than 300 hospitals, and the promotion area has expanded from Sichuan to places such as Henan, Hunan and Shenyang. Participate in Saifu Technology to expand supply chain finance business: China's supply chain finance market has now exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and will grow at an annual rate of no less than 10% by 2020. Through self-operation and shareholding (setting up 2 subsidiaries - Huapengfei Supply Chain, Huafei Supply Chain, and participation in Saifu Technology), the company provides supply chain financial services to customers in an orderly manner to upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises, relying on closed management of logistics and trading links, and has huge room for development. Saifu Technology is expected to achieve net profit of 40 million yuan and 50 million yuan in 16/17, bringing more investment income to the company. The valuation takes into account future company strategies and industry development prospects. Under profit forecasting assumptions, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.67/0.99/1.16 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 44.4 times, 30.1 times and 25.7 times, giving the company a “buy” rating. The risk of declining demand in the risk market; increased competition in the logistics sector; the performance of foreign investment clients falls short of promises; and management risks brought about by scale expansion.

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