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慈星股份(300307):主业回暖 战略转型进行中

長城證券 ·  Aug 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment recommendations We forecast the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2016-2018 to be $154 million, $210 million, and $252 million, corresponding EPS of 0.19 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively. The company is a leading enterprise in China's textile machinery industry, actively deploying industrial+service robots and mobile Internet businesses. As the company improves operational efficiency, enters overseas markets, and actively promotes strategic transformation, the company is expected to experience another explosion in performance in the next two years and maintain a “recommended” rating. Key investment model changes promote performance growth and meet market expectations. In view of the fact that the company drastically reduced the sales scale of the buyer's credit model in the past two years and stopped this business model this year, the company drastically reduced the calculation of asset impairment losses, and operating profit increased significantly compared to the same period last year. According to the 2016 semi-annual report, during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 564.4698 million yuan, an increase of 38.06% over the same period of the previous year; operating profit of 10,495.47 million yuan, an increase of 330.36% over the same period of the previous year; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 112.1358 million yuan, an increase of 32.85% over the same period last year. Supported by the recovery of the main business, diversification of product lines. The main business of computer horizontal machines has picked up, and the horizontal knitting machine developed first has strong market competitiveness and broad market, and is now an important part of the company's main business. According to the 2016 semi-annual report, during the reporting period, computerized knitting machines and shoe lining machines accounted for 40.02% and 34.00% of gross margins, respectively. Currently, the company's main products include: fully computerized flat knitting machines, computerized seamless underwear machines, computerized high-speed pantyhose machines, shoe lining machines, industrial robots, and service robots. The main computer horizontal machine business picked up to relieve pressure and support the company to develop new frontiers of business, but competition intensified and industry integration accelerated. In the long run, strategic transformation to achieve machine replacement and upgrading is imperative. Entering industrial+service robots, strategic transformation is underway. Cixing Robotics was established to enter the field of robot system integration. In 2020, China's system integration market will reach 100 billion yuan; acquire Suzhou Dingna to build a machine vision business, and the machine vision market will reach 3 billion in 2016; acquire Wuhu Gugao, the main robot intelligent controller market size, which is expected to reach 1.55 trillion yuan in 2020; acquire Shengkai Interactive and establish a pistachio robot to lay out service robots. The service robot market will reach 20 billion yuan in 2017, with broad development prospects. The company is expected to achieve synergy between industrial and service robots in the future. Lay out mobile videos and mobile ads to further upgrade your business. China's mobile internet has developed rapidly in recent years. The mobile video market in 2015 was 36.31 billion yuan, an increase of 51.5% over the previous year. The mobile advertising market was 90.13 billion yuan in 2015 and will exceed 300 billion in 2018. The future development prospects are good. The company acquired Hangzhou Duoyile and YouTou and actively entered the mobile Internet. In 2015, Duoyle and YouTou had revenue of 9.524 million yuan and 16.6973 million yuan respectively. It is expected that in the future, the mobile video and mobile advertising business will add new development opportunities to the company. Risk warning: The macroeconomy continues to be sluggish; product market demand is slowing down.

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