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开尔新材(300234)中报点评:最差时期已经过去 中长期成长空间广阔

興業證券 ·  Aug 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company announced its interim report, achieving revenue of 148 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%, and net profit of 15.31 million, a year-on-year decrease of 72.2%. Comment: The operation is at a low point, and the business is under pressure. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue fell 37.6%, and gross margin fell 10.5 points. Among them, revenue from the industrial protective enamel materials business fell 46.9%, and gross margin fell 24 points to 17.2% due to unsettled new orders; the interior decoration materials business fell 10.5%, and gross margin increased 9.49 points to 50.09%; the curtain wall business fell 96%, and gross margin fell 21 points to 39.1%. New orders are picking up, and positive factors are piling up. In the first half of the year, the company signed a major order of 220 million yuan, accounting for 52% of last year's revenue. Currently, orders are in supply. The first half of the year has not yet been settled, and settlement will be centralized in the second half of the year, thus driving a reversal in performance. Looking at the medium term, domestic urban rail investment has clearly rebounded this year. The construction situation is relatively good. The interior decoration materials boom is expected to last for a long time, while the low-temperature coal saver business in the industrial materials sector benefits from ultra-low emission policies and is expected to concentrate on demand in the next two years. The air preheater business is also expected to gradually improve from the start of the replacement market, and positive factors for the company are accumulating. Three-year fixed increase+employee shareholding, perfect corporate governance to protect future growth. The company's three-year fixed increase has been successfully completed. The majority shareholders have subscribed for 100 million yuan, and as of August 1, the company's employees held shares and purchased a total of 77.272 million yuan (total 150 million yuan), with an average transaction price of 19.35 yuan, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development. Investment advice: In the short term, improvements in reporting due to project settlement reasons have not been reflected, but new orders are being delivered normally, and the second half of the year's performance is basically locked in. In the medium term, the domestic rail transit construction boom is rising. The “ultra-low emissions” policy continues to gain strength. The company's façade decoration and industrial protection businesses are expected to resonate and improve, and performance flexibility will increase in the next two years. The company has already laid out related fields such as sewage treatment and carbon trading in the early stages, and is expected to accelerate environmental protection through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions. The three-year fixed increase reserve price is 15.90 yuan, the average shareholding price of employees is 19.35 yuan, and the stock price is supported. We expect EPS to be around 0.42, 0.64, and 0.87 yuan respectively in 16-18, maintaining the “gain” rating. Risk warning: Track investment falls short of expectations, and the results of mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations.

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