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加加食品(002650)点评:预计2016年上半年主业经营业绩录得微幅增长

羣益證券(香港) ·  Aug 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Conclusions and suggestions: The company expects revenue for the first half of 2016 to increase 6% year on year. At the same time, due to the increase in the base period due to investment income in the same period last year, the estimated net profit is expected to decrease by 34% year on year. We estimate a 5% increase in net profit from the main business over the same period last year. We are optimistic about the huge market brought about by the increase in consumption in the soy sauce industry. As a small but beautiful soy sauce brand, the company is currently in the process of marketing transformation. The current stock price is 58 times that of PE in 2017. The valuation is too high, making it possible to hold investment proposals. The company published a performance report. It estimates that actual operating income for the first half of 2016 will be 962 million yuan, up 5.96% year on year; actual net profit attributable to owners of the parent company will be 97.916 million yuan, down 34.01% year on year; and basic earnings per share will be 0.09 yuan, down 30.77% year on year. The decline in net profit for the first half of the year was mainly due to a decline in gross profit and a 91.08% year-on-year decline in the company's investment income (an absolute decrease of 79.3926 million yuan). According to our estimates, after deducting the impact of investment income, it is estimated that the operating profit of the main business will increase by 5.225,500 yuan, and the estimated net profit after tax will increase by 3.92 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% (the net profit realized after deduction in the first half of 2015 was 81,42221 million yuan, an increase of 2.75% over the previous year). Overall, the company's main business performance has recorded a slight increase, which is a fair expression. On a quarterly basis, 2Q estimated actual revenue of 456 million yuan, an increase of 1.33% over the previous year; net profit was estimated at 44,896 million yuan, a decrease of 53% over the previous year. According to our estimates, after deducting the impact of investment income, 2Q realized a net profit of 3.52 million yuan, an increase of 22.86% over the previous year (net profit realized after deduction of 2Q in 2015 was 28.52 million yuan). The company specializes in “Gaga” brand soy sauce, which accounts for more than 50% of revenue. Judging from the industry in which it is located, the overall growth of the seasoning industry has been confirmed, and the future prospects are promising. The gross margin of the company's major soy sauce products “original brewing” and “fresh noodles” is around 50%, and the 200,000 batch of high-end soy sauce project was put into production in 2015. The production capacity release period is estimated to be three years. It is hoped to expand supermarket channels in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, but against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the company's new product promotion and the speed at which production capacity is released have been adversely affected, affecting the growth rate of business performance. In addition, the company is actively developing a variety of condiments, including vinegar, chicken essence, monosodium glutamate, sauce, common cooking oil, and high-grade tea seed oil. The company established an incentive system and launched an employee shareholding plan. On January 6, 2016, the first phase of the employee shareholding plan completed the purchase, and purchased a total of 41.656 million shares of the company's shares through the secondary market, with an average transaction price of 7.57 yuan/share. The current stock price is 7.2 yuan. The above incentive system provides a better margin of safety for the current stock price. In the second half of 2015, the non-deducted company realized a net profit of 27.07 million yuan attributable to the listed company. The base period is very low, so the performance growth rate in the second half of 2016 is likely to be faster than in the first half of the year. Overall, we estimate that the company can separately achieve net profit of 134 million yuan in 2016 and 2017 (down 8.73% year on year, up about 24% year on year after deduction, EPS of 0.12 yuan) and 145 million yuan (up 7.53% year on year, EPS is 0.13 yuan).

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