Main points of investment
The company is a major domestic supplier of natural gas liquefaction process packages and equipment. The company has long been committed to the research of natural gas liquefaction technology, mainly providing customers with natural gas liquefaction process packages and processing equipment, the core products are conventional natural gas and unconventional natural gas liquefaction process packages and devices, storage equipment and gas filling systems, etc. The company has natural gas expansion process, nitrogen + methane expansion process, and mixed refrigerant process (MRC) and other international mainstream natural gas liquefaction core process technology. At present, the company has completed more than 30 sets of natural gas liquefaction projects, which is one of the enterprises with the largest operation performance of domestic LNG units.
The LNG industry has been improving for a long time, and the downstream demand is growing rapidly. As a storage and transportation mode of natural gas, LNG has the advantages of high storage efficiency, less land occupation and better security. It will grow with the growth of natural gas consumption, thus increasing the demand for LNG equipment. China plans that the apparent consumption of natural gas will reach 4000 billion cubic meters by 2020, and there is great potential for the application and development of natural gas. Based on the prediction of BP P.L.C. (BP), the global natural gas liquefaction volume will reach 15% of the natural gas production by 2030, and the global liquefaction volume will grow twice as fast as the global natural gas production. The wide application prospect of LNG makes the LNG industry improve for a long time.
Profit forecast and rating: based on the issued equity, we predict that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.77 yuan, 0.87 yuan and 1.07 yuan respectively, an increase of 1.87%, 12.84% and 22.46% respectively over the same period last year. With reference to the valuation of the comparable company, and taking into account the future demand of the company's products and the competitiveness of the company, we think that it is more reasonable to give the company 30 Murray 40 times PE in 2016, and the reasonable share price is 23.10 Murray 30.80 yuan. Coverage for the first time, no rating for the time being.
Risk hint; the long project cycle leads to lower-than-expected order execution; the risk that the oil price falls sharply and the natural gas price cannot be adjusted in time.