Main points of investment
Agricultural environment: leading garden enterprises in central China. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Wuhan. In 2015, operating income reached 354 million yuan, up 13.15% from the same period last year; net profit was 47.5041 million yuan, up 11.29% from the same period last year. Wu Liang, Wu Shixiong and Zhao Xiaomin were the actual controllers, holding 42.96%, 19.48% and 19.79%, respectively.
"large industries, small companies", capital-channel-driven scale expansion. The investment in urban landscaping in China reached 181.76 billion yuan in 2014, and the market capacity is expected to be between 1993.35 and 229.384 billion yuan in 2015. according to the calculation of 2-3% of the real estate investment in gardens, the market size of real estate gardens in 2016 is expected to be between 2090.78 and 327.873 billion yuan. The landscape engineering industry has the characteristics of low barriers to entry, regional separation, scattered demand side, and labor-intensive, resulting in extremely fragmented and low concentration of the industry; in 2014, the CR4 of the industry was 4.44% and the CR50 was 17.85%. Oriental gardens in listed garden enterprises are typical of leapfrog expansion through financial advantages, while Pubang gardens are typical of scale growth through channel expansion.
Balanced development of real estate and municipal gardens, strong customer resources. In 2015, the proportion of real estate garden and municipal garden business was 44.66% and 55.34% respectively, showing a trend of balanced development. The income share of central and eastern China was 64.56% and 20.14%, respectively, ranking the top two, but the proportion of other regions gradually expanded and the national layout gradually showed. The company's good engineering quality creates brand strength, and has rich real estate customer resources such as Vanke Real Estate, Poly Real Estate and Shimao Real Estate; the balanced development of the company's real estate garden and municipal garden business effectively reduces the market and financial risks faced by the company.
Strengthen market development and technology research and development, and establish a good brand. In the future, the company will focus on developing business in Northwest and North China, continuously increase the national market share, enhance the company's engineering management technology level, and enhance the company's market competitiveness.
Summarize the company's experience in saving landscaping, and study the research and application of new technology and new materials in landscape construction.
Profit forecast and valuation: we forecast that the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 will be 55 million yuan, 66 million yuan and 75 million yuan respectively, and the EPS for 2016, 2017 and 2018 based on the total share capital of 93.1073 million shares will be 0.59,0.71 and 0.81 yuan respectively. With reference to the valuation level of comparable listed companies, and combined with the future development space of the company, we believe that we can give 30-40 times PE in 2016, with a corresponding price range of 17.7 Murray 23.6 yuan.
Risk hints: real estate macro-control policy risk, accounts receivable recovery risk, newly signed orders are not as expected