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南方轴承(002553)深度分析:飞机轮胎再制造大有可为 携手无锡翼龙翱翔蓝海

安信證券 ·  Aug 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The remanufacturing of aircraft tires has great potential. The aviation industry is a new blue ocean: aircraft tires are typical consumables, and civil aviation aircraft need to be replaced about 15 times a year. Remanufactures provide low-cost solutions for airlines. Its advantages are: (1) safety and durability meet new tire standards (GB/T 9747); (2) reduce the amount of rubber used by 60%-70%, and the price is only 1/2-1/3 of the price of new tires; (3) reduce reliance on raw materials such as rubber and petroleum products, and adapt to increasingly stringent environmental regulations. Tire remanufacturing has now basically penetrated the civil aviation and general aviation markets, and the military market has also gradually opened up recently. The industrial space is vast, and the remanufacturing market is expected to reach 7 billion per year in 2020: according to caliber statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration and the National Bureau of Statistics, the current fleet is close to 8,500, including 3,000 civil aviation aircraft, 2,500 aviation aircraft, and 3,000 military aircraft, with a total demand of 431,200 tires. The total demand for aircraft tires is expected to exceed 630,000 in 2020, of which the demand for radial and twill tires will reach 11.41 million and 5191,000, respectively. According to the calculation of the remanufacturing cost of meridian and twill tires of 30,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan, the market size will reach 7.3 billion yuan in 2020, and it will continue to grow along with the increase in the size of random teams. There is an urgent need for localization, and strong policy support: foreign giants almost completely monopolize the remanufacturing market, and the market share of domestic enterprises is less than 5%. Localization is bound to become a trend in the future: (1) the low cost advantage is expected to break the monopoly pricing system; (2) aircraft tires are the only segment of China's tire industry that has not been localized, and policy support and technical maturity have prompted import substitution. (3) Tires are one of the few fields where aviation has not achieved its own production or participation in production, and is expected to become a key breakthrough direction. Pteroson's qualifications and technical advantages are difficult to replicate. The next three years are imminent: the company has been dormant in the industry for 15 years and has completed the three necessary qualification tests in the field of aircraft tire remanufacturing: (1) passed the civil aviation CCAR-145 assessment, (2) obtained the qualifications of the four major airline undertakers, and (3) obtained 19 maintenance qualifications out of all 23 tire part numbers by Boeing. Pterosaurs has achieved full independent research and development of remanufacturing technology and has two patents for core technologies in the industrial chain. The company joined hands with Southern Bearing to develop a nationwide production capacity layout. By 2018, the production capacity of aircraft tires will reach 100,000 tires and 1 million automobile tires. Investment advice: We expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.2, 0.29, and 0.35 yuan respectively, with outstanding growth, maintaining a buy-A investment rating, and a target price of 22 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: Wuxi Pteroson's business expansion fell short of expectations, and traditional business declined sharply

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