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东莞控股(000828)深度研究:原有主业稳健 转型金融加码

華泰證券 ·  Aug 10, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The only listing platform for state-owned holdings. Companies gradually entering the financial sector are listed platforms controlled by the Dongguan State-owned Assets Administration Commission. They hold 70% of the shares and are mainly engaged in road and bridge billing services. With asset restructuring and business transformation, the company gradually entered the financial sector on the basis of maintaining road and bridge fees, and after three acquisitions, wholly-owned holdings finance leasing. The company's subsidiaries also participate in securities, trusts, banks, and small loan companies, and is gradually improving the layout of financial business, and the resource synergy between industry and finance is impressive in the future. The leasing business is developing strongly, and the increase in investment income can be seen. Rongtong Leasing, which is wholly owned by the company, has increased its market development efforts and actively seized the market. It has successively cooperated in leasing business with affiliated companies Dongguan Bus and Dongguan Xinzhao Investment Company. The growth rates of revenue and net profit in 2015 were 138% and 26%, respectively, which is a new profit growth point for the company. The company plans to increase financing leasing by 1.4 billion yuan through a non-public offering, and all of the capital raised will be used to develop financial leasing business. The fixed increase plan has been reviewed by the Securities Regulatory Commission and has yet to be officially approved and issued. It is expected that as capital is put in place, the company's internal resource coordination and expansion of financing channels will be further enhanced. Dongguan Securities, in which the company has participated, has been accepted by the Securities Regulatory Commission and is currently in the IPO queue. It is expected that the company's value will be significantly increased after listing, bringing considerable investment returns. The steady growth in road and bridge toll performance is beneficial to supporting financial transformation companies to own and manage the first, second, and third sections of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway. The total management mileage is over 60 kilometers. Toll revenue in 2015 exceeded 900 million yuan, accounting for 85% of the company's total revenue, which is the company's main source of profit. In 2015, toll roads in Guangdong Province were connected to the national ETC network, effectively reducing costs and toll waiting times, and increasing vehicle operation efficiency by 367%. The Meiguan Expressway, which connects the Guanshen Expressway to the south, has achieved free traffic, which is expected to have a significant boost in traffic on the Guanshen Expressway. Employee shareholding incentivizes innovation. State-owned enterprise reform is expected to participate strongly in the “Dongkong No. 1 Asset Management Plan” set up by Guangfa Asset Management, which has a fixed increase, and is fully subscribed by Dongguan Holdings for the 2015 employee stock ownership plan. The total amount is no more than 80 million yuan. Through the implementation of the employee stock ownership plan, the interests of employees and the company are aligned, employee enthusiasm is effectively mobilized, and a good platform for stabilizing outstanding employees is provided. The reform process of state-owned enterprises is being accelerated. The actual controllers of financial enterprises such as Dongguan Securities, Dongguan Trust, Chang'an Village Bank, and Songshan Lake Microfinance Company in which the company has shares are all owned by the Dongguan State Assets Administration Commission. We expect that the company, as a listing platform, will probably take advantage of regional advantages to undertake the collaborative development of industry and finance under the Dongguan State Assets Administration Commission and transform into a regional small-scale financial management platform. In the future, with the implementation of the IPO of Dongguan Securities, the asset securitization process will be further accelerated. For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating. We are optimistic about the strategic position of the company's transformation to finance. We are optimistic about achieving collaborative development of internal resources through leasing business, and enhancing the company's value by participating in the holding company's IPO listing and listing on the new third board. The implementation of non-public offerings will greatly boost the leasing business, and the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform is expected to drive transformation and upgrading. We expect the 2016-18 EPS to be 0.60, 0.73, and 0.94 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 17X, 14X, and 11X. Using the comparable company segment PE valuation method, the corresponding target market value is 14.4 billion to 168 billion yuan, and the target price range is 11.58 to 13.49 yuan. Risk warning: The fixed increase process falls short of expectations, the national reform process falls short of expectations, the Dongguan securities IPO process falls short of expectations, and the risk of market fluctuations.

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