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广电网络(600831)投资价值分析报告:有线行业实力派 加速转型融媒体

中信證券 ·  Aug 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  A powerful cable operator that has invested heavily in a transition to integrated media. The company is the only cable television network operator in Shaanxi Province and an e-government network support enterprise in Shaanxi Province. In 2015, the company clarified the development strategy of “full industry chain layout, integrated media operation”, expanding from a single cable television transmission business to an all-media, multi-network, and comprehensive business, including video and audio services, Internet access, and information services. As the company's integrated media transformation continues to advance, the company's performance has entered an upward channel. In 2015, the company achieved total operating income of 2,387 billion yuan, an increase of 3.92% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 133 million yuan, an increase of 13.68% over the previous year. The reform of the cable industry is accelerating, and the value of users continues to increase. Cable networks are an important infrastructure for social informatization. By the end of 2015, the number of cable radio and television users nationwide was 239 million, and the population coverage rate reached 98.80%, which has an absolute advantage in population coverage. The driving force for growth in the cable industry will shift from expanding user scale to increasing user value, and the cloud management side layout will reshape the cable industry's value chain. The share of revenue from basic ratings fees has declined from 68% in 2008 to 56% in 2014. The share of value-added services and data services continues to rise, driving a rapid increase in user value. Actively transform new media and comprehensively lay out the cloud management terminal. The company's main business is cable television services, high-definition interactive television services, radio and television broadband services, etc., with 6.29 million users in the province. By the end of 2015, the number of users connected to the company's two-way network reached 6.17 million, and the number of individual radio and television broadband users reached 750,000. The company actively lays out the cloud management side: at the content level, with the subsidiary Silk Road Film as the core, to create an important platform for the content sector; cooperates with the government and enterprises in medical care, education, etc., to build a social service television platform; at the data level, cooperates with Guanghuan Xinwang to build a cloud computing platform, leading the interconnection of cable networks in the northwest region; and at the terminal level, it launches TVOS, mobile TV and other products. We believe that the company's development strategy to transform into an “integrated media operator” is gradually being implemented. Set a fixed increase in reserve capital to open up space for foreign cooperation. In June 2015, the company issued a fixed increase plan, raising no more than 955 million yuan; in June 2016, the fixed increase plan was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. The fund-raising projects of this fixed increase plan are to build a next-generation radio and television network and repay bank loans. On the one hand, this fixed increase will reduce the company's debt repayment pressure, enhance the company's financial strength, effectively reduce financial expenses, and open up profit margins; on the other hand, the company will receive support in terms of network technology, content resources, etc. by strengthening cooperation with Dingzeng participants, Oriental Pearl, Tongfang Shares, and Jebsen Co., Ltd., which will help the company accelerate the process of integrated media transformation. risk factors. The data business fell short of expectations; cable reform and transformation fell short of expectations; market competition risk. Earnings forecasts, valuations and investment ratings. Considering the comprehensive development of the company's various businesses, as well as the implementation of endogenous growth expectations and fixed growth plans, we expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS (dilution) to be 0.29/0.41/0.52 yuan; the current price is 15.23 yuan, corresponding to 2016-2018 PE 52/37/29 times. Considering the company's industry and future transformation to integrated media, we selected Huashu Media, TV and Radio Media, etc., which have a deep transformation layout, as comparable companies. At the same time, considering the company's local level of economic development and consumer spending, we gave the company a market value of 0.2 million yuan per user. It is estimated that by 2017, the company will have 6.3 million users, corresponding to a market capitalization space of 12.6 billion yuan in 2017 and a corresponding target price of 20.45 yuan. For the first time, coverage has given the company a “buy” rating. Investors are advised to pay active attention.

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