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西安旅游(000610)点评:战略转型升级步入实践期

海通證券 ·  Aug 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The only state-owned listed tourism company in the northwest, and growth has been weak in recent years. The company is the only tourism-related state-owned listed company in the northwest region, and is mainly engaged in travel agencies and hotels. In 2015, the company achieved revenue of 760 million yuan, net profit after deduction of net profit of 28.7 million yuan; the company predicts 2016 H1 profit of 4.5 to 6.5 million yuan, mainly benefiting from investment income. The reasons for the company's weak performance growth in recent years are: 1. 3. The tightening of public consumption and increased competition in the industry; 2. The main source of revenue, travel agencies, have a small revenue scale and low ability to control upstream resources; 3. There is a lack of professionals in project development, expansion, and marketing, making it difficult to cope with market changes in a timely manner. Strategic transformation and upgrading has entered the implementation period. As early as 2014, the company proposed the idea of actively expanding and strengthening through capital operations and project mergers and acquisitions, and acquired 51% of the shares of Xi'an Outlet Shopping Company and 19% of Xi'an China Travel in 2015 to actively lay out new businesses and strive to create a full tourism industry chain format. In 2015, the company once again proposed promoting Internet thinking and following the development path of new products, new resources, and new models. At present, the company's strategic direction mentioned above has entered a period of implementation, and there may still be actions in the future. Acquire the trio to strengthen marketing channel layout. The company announced that it intends to acquire 100% of the three shares in cash and by issuing shares for $1.1 billion. Sanxing is a national campus integrated operation service provider. It is mainly engaged in campus all-media business, marketing services for campus public relations activities, Internet product development and technical services, and digital integrated marketing services. Currently, it has established long-term cooperative relationships with 900 universities across the country. Its main customers include various industry giants including China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, JD, Suning, and Dangdang Network. Through this transaction, the company will enter the rapidly growing Internet advertising and digital marketing business. At the same time, it is also possible to carry out corresponding integration with current tourism business and hotel management business, and explore the development of Internet hotel marketing and tourism marketing. The majority shareholders' subscription ratio is high, and the injection of private sector vitality is expected to improve the company's management mechanism. Dongxi'an Travel Group, the largest shareholder of the company, has subscribed 40.76 million shares, amounting to 450 million yuan. Considering the completion of the supporting capital transaction, the shareholding ratio rose to 29.96%, and is still the largest shareholder of the company. Meanwhile, Mr. Qian Jundong, chairman of the Three People's Party, will hold 3.55% of the shares in the listed company and join the board of directors of the listed company as a senior executive, which will facilitate the improvement of the company's operating mechanism and philosophy. First coverage, increased ratings. According to the performance promises of the three companies, the net profit of non-retracted mothers in 2016-2018 is not less than 80 million, 100 million, and 125 million. At the same time, the marketing business of the tribe is expected to form a synergistic effect with the company's travel agency and hotel business. If the transaction is completed, the profitability of listed companies will increase significantly. However, since this transaction still needs to be approved by the company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting, approval by the Shaanxi State Assets Administration Commission, and approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the transaction will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.03, 0.04, and 0.06 yuan. Referring to 2016's 2016 PB and the company's current strategy to actively expand and strengthen through capital operations and project mergers and acquisitions, giving 2016 4 times higher than the industry average, with a corresponding target price of 13.4 yuan. Risk warning: There is still great uncertainty about this acquisition; there is a risk that the asset appreciation rate of the three will be high and the goodwill of the three will be impaired; and there is a risk of loss of core personnel of the trio.

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