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华斯股份(002494)深度报告:基于微博社交土壤 培育网红变现之花

海通證券 ·  Aug 24, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Social e-commerce is an inevitable trend in future development. Against the backdrop of depletion of traffic dividends, traditional e-commerce pain points have gradually emerged, and decentralized, KOL-based social e-commerce has brought about a paradigm change. The rapid development of mobile terminals with a wider range of application scenarios, more contacts, fragmented access, and more arbitrary transaction decisions has laid the foundation for the development of social e-commerce. At the same time, the low threshold and “high profit” shown by social e-commerce attracted more people to join, triggering a further explosion in the industry. Influencer e-commerce is a type of social e-commerce, with a market size exceeding 100 billion dollars. Based on different social relationships, many different types of social e-commerce have developed. Influencer e-commerce is a type that is currently relatively mature in development. The main model is for influencers or key opinion leaders (KOLs) to gather fans on social platforms and then channel fans to various e-commerce platforms to achieve commercial monetization. In the process of monetization, big data companies, influencer brokerage companies, agency operating companies, and supply chain companies each provide corresponding supporting services. Take the clothing industry, which has a high penetration rate of influencers, as an example. The market size of clothing influencer e-commerce exceeds 300 billion dollars, and the entire market has a lot of room for development. Sina Weibo is the best soil for fostering social e-commerce. Sina Weibo has developed into the largest social networking platform for weak relationships in China. 2016Q2, the number of monthly active users has reached 282 million. Highly educated people aged 17-33 are the main users, and their spending power is strong. At the same time, deep media genes have prompted a blowout in the number of high-quality KOLs in various vertical fields of microblogging, providing a good foundation for the development of social e-commerce. Currently, Weibo's improved product system has been formed, and the monetization of social assets is just around the corner. Huasi shares has built a closed loop of monetization of social assets based on the microblogging social ecosystem. The company invested in Youshe Technology (micro sales operator) in 2015, and is at the top of the Weibo social e-commerce ecosystem. Currently, Youshe Technology is responsible for all back-office operations of the Weibo window, has massive microblogging data, and has strong data mining and analysis capabilities; the 2016 acquisition in the future will test the waters of front-end operations of influencers and initially explore connections with upstream celebrities. The company has now achieved a closed loop of Weibo fans, celebrity data mining (Yushe Technology), celebrity operations (future moments), back-end docking (supply chain), and monetization (micro-selling). Investments in high-quality social e-commerce trademarks, such as micro-sales and future moments, show the company's confidence and determination to deploy social e-commerce, while also demonstrating the company's ability to obtain high-quality resources. It is expected that the company's layout in the field of social e-commerce will continue to advance. Profit forecasting and valuation. Considering the raw materials market, Fur City's subsequent rental income contribution, and the appreciation of early-stage reserve land, investment income brought by participating companies are all expected to open up new performance growth points. The 2016 non-public offering base price is 14.31 yuan/share, and there is still a margin of safety. In 2016-18, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 2037, 6716, and 91.17 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 12.72%, 229.75%, and 35.76%, corresponding to EPS of 0.06, 0.19, and 0.26 yuan, respectively. Referring to the relevant comparable company, the 17-year PE range is 41x-114x. In the context of the company's industrial upgrading, considering the explosive performance brought about by subsequent Internet business promotion and the scarcity of leading enterprise targets in similar businesses, the company was given 90xPE in 2017, corresponding to a target price of 17.34 yuan, and an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: The company's performance declined further, and the social e-commerce ecosystem layout fell short of expectations.

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