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华斯股份(002494)中报点评:二季度整体业绩略有改善 网红经纪公司投资开始落地

申萬宏源研究 ·  Aug 23, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company's revenue for the first half of the year fell 15%, net profit to mother fell 14%, and net profit after deducting non-net profit increased 5%, in line with expectations. H1 achieved revenue of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, net profit to mother of 8.73 million, a decrease of 13.5%, after deducting non-net profit of 6.74 million yuan, an increase of 5%, and EPS of 0.03 yuan, in line with expectations. Single Q2 revenue fell 13% to 96 million. The decline in revenue for the single quarter gradually narrowed for 4 consecutive quarters, and net profit to mother increased 2.2 times to 79 million. Mainly due to a low base, there was a slight loss in Q2 last year. The company expects net profit to be 558-9.57 million for the first 3 quarters, down 30% from the previous year to 20%, mainly due to a decline in overseas revenue and an increase in financial expenses. Revenue from the main fur business continued to be adjusted in depth in the first half of the year, and weak overseas demand had a big impact. H1's main business revenue was 140 million, down 25% year over year. Revenue other than the main fur business, such as store sales, increased 22% year over year to 62 million. By product, the decline in fur clothing was narrowed to 5%, and fur coats and accessories dropped significantly, increasing revenue from mink breeds. By region, foreign and domestic revenue declined by 38% and 16%, respectively. Overseas revenue was greatly affected by Russia, and the share of domestic revenue increased further to 41%. The company continues to integrate upstream resources and accelerate the construction of downstream channels. The increase in gross margin of 5.4 pct led to an increase in net interest rate, and asset quality remained stable. H1's comprehensive gross margin was 35.6%, an increase of 5.4pct. The gross margin of the main business increased by 3.3 pct to 30.8% due to the drop in raw hide prices. The gross margin of other business revenue increased by 7pct to 47%. Sales and management expenses increased by 2 and 4 pct to 11% and 14%, respectively. The financial expense ratio was reduced by 1 pct to 5.3%, but it is still at a high level and is expected to decrease in the future. Net margin increased slightly to 4.2%. Inventory increased slightly from the beginning of the year by 5.01 million to 510 million, accounts receivable decreased by 4.89 million to 110 million compared to the beginning of the year, and asset quality was stable. The decline in revenue resulted in net operating cash flow falling to -9.02 million. The social e-commerce industry chain continues to be laid out, and investment by influencer brokerage companies has begun. The company invested 30% of Youshe Technology's shares last year, and Youshe Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Sina Weibo. The company invested 5 million yuan in influencer brokerage companies in August, accounting for 10% of the shares. Future Moments is one of the first influencer agencies officially signed with Sina Weibo. It was established at the end of 2015. The team has extensive experience in social media and advertising operations, focuses on incubating beauty influencers, and has well-growing influencer resources such as Niko Wang Yuepeng, Li Qitan, and Saya. The company clearly stated in the investment announcement that the future time to participate in the shares is the beginning of expansion and layout in the mobile social e-commerce industry chain. The company is a Sina Weibo shadow stock. After investing in Youshe Technology to achieve strategic cooperation with Weibo, the influencer brokerage company's investment is expected to continue. The fixed increase has already passed, and the stock price has been adjusted sufficiently since this year to maintain the purchase rating. Since last year, Weibo has continued to build an ecosystem of influencers economy, and its performance and stock price performance have been fully verified. Youshe Technology, which has signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and the influencer agency that signed the contract have all continued to benefit from this system. Through continuous investment, Huas can obtain high-quality resources from all aspects of the influencer industry chain. The company's 600 million fixed increase has already passed the meeting. The majority shareholders have subscribed 10%, and the fixed reserve price is 14.31 yuan. Since the fur industry is still being adjusted, the rental income of fur merchants may be lower than expected, and we lowered our profit forecast. The estimated EPS for 16-18 will be 0.066/0.14/0.18 yuan (the original forecast was 0.15/0.19/0.22 yuan), and the corresponding PE will be 259/111/86 times, respectively. Considering that the company has declined significantly since the beginning of the year, the investment layout of the influencer brokerage company has begun, and the fixed increase has already passed, maintaining the buying rating.

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