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南国置业(002305)半年报点评:商业地产异地扩张 股东资源协同可期

民生證券 ·  Aug 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

1. Event Overview In the first half of 2016, the company achieved operating income of 1,372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.84%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 4,78818 million yuan, an increase of 103.97% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction of 4.3512 million yuan, an increase of 103.61% over the same period last year; and achieved basic earnings per share of 0.0033 yuan/share. 2. Analyze and judge commercial operations to achieve offsite replication and explore asset-light operating models In July 2016, Chengdu Fanyue Mall, the company's first commercial project operating across provinces and regions, officially opened, marking the successful offsite expansion of the company's unique “rent first, sell later, unified management” business model. As of January 2016, the company operated a property area of 882,800 square meters. Apart from the newly opened Chengdu Fanyue Mall and Xiangyang Yuexing Home, the rental rate was over 85%. At the same time, the company is also actively exploring asset-light operation management models, and has established commercial management companies in Nanjing, Guiyang and other places, which will gradually cultivate the asset-light model that exports commercial operation management capabilities into a new profit growth point. We have abundant land reserves, are deeply involved in Hubei, and are entering key Tier 1 and 2 cities. While deeply cultivating the Hubei region, the company continues to increase its land development efforts in key Tier 1 and 2 cities. After receiving the Nanjing China Storage Project in 2015, the company successfully won a 96,800 square meter plot for the Nanjing Qinhuai District fan bone project in May 2016. As of June 2016, the company's land reserves have a planned construction area of 971,300 square meters, and the total construction area of projects under construction is 1,519,500 square meters. The projects are mainly distributed in hot areas such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Chengdu, laying a solid foundation for the sustainable and healthy development of the company's future performance. The controlling shareholder Dianjian Real Estate has strong strength. Complementary advantages and collaboration can be expected that the company will complete targeted additional issuance in the first half of 2016. The controlling shareholder, Dianjian Real Estate, subscribed for 109 million shares, and directly and indirectly holds a total of 40.55% of the company's shares. Currently, Electric Construction Real Estate mainly develops residential products, while Nanguo Real Estate focuses on commercial real estate development and operation. The two can achieve complementary advantages. In April 2016, the company signed a memorandum of cooperation with a subsidiary of China Power Construction. It will cooperate to develop its old plant resources and build industrial parks for cultural creativity, innovative industries, etc. 3. Profit forecast and investment recommendations Investment suggestions: We expect the company's 2016 and 2017 EPS to be 0.30 and 0.39 yuan/share, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 19.84 and 15.50 times, respectively, giving it a “highly recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning: Property rental rates fall short of expectations, and commercial real estate prosperity falls short of expectations.

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