Summary:
The 13th five-year Plan period is the first "century-long" period of forestry. After the ban on logging at the National Conference, Fujian issued an "Emergency notice on stopping Natural Forest cutting" in 2010, and the development of forestry is an urgent period of transformation. and hit out the development slogan of "Green Water and Green Mountains is Jinshan and Yinshan".
Since the 1980s, the country has successively established a number of forest parks, wetland parks and other tourist gardens. From the latest statistics, the number of forest tourism in various parts of the country is gradually increasing. As of August 2016, the number was close to 9000, while the number of forest tourists in 2015 has exceeded 1.05 billion, which is more than 20% higher than the normal number of tourists.
On the 24th, the tourism construction project of Pingtan Island was officially approved, another honor since Pingtan was awarded the "Free Trade + Experimental Zone", which made Pingtan the second international tourist island in the country after Hainan. As Pingtan is very close to Taiwan, from the perspective of tourism strategic layout, it has a certain synergistic effect. In the future, high-quality industries with Minnan culture in the park will emerge as the times require, and Pingtan development will become the largest local beneficiary enterprise.
From the perspective of long-term planning, we believe that the overall business of the company shows a growth trend, and under the continuous promotion of favorable policies in the near future, there will be explosive growth in the future. however, due to geographical limitations, combined with the current economic downturn, short-term corporate performance release will be limited. However, due to changes in supply and demand, the cement business, which accounts for a small proportion in the short term, will show some signs of picking up.
Profit forecast: we forecast that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.02,0.08,0.06 yuan respectively, giving the company a "neutral" rating.
Risk analysis: 1) the risk of market change; 2) regulatory risk; 3) the risk of industrial policy change.