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中国高速传动(0658.HK)中报点评:国际市场逐步打开 海外出口快速增长

興業證券 ·  Aug 24, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment results have been stable in the interim, and the share of wind power products exported has increased. On August 19, China High Speed Transmission (0658.HK) announced 2016 interim results: operating income of 4.532 billion yuan, down 4.6% year on year; gross profit margin of 33.8%, up 4.1 percentage points year on year; net profit of shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 9.9% year on year; basic profit per share of 0.352 yuan without dividend. The company's mid-term performance is stable, overall sales of wind power products are stable, traditional transmission products are still sluggish, and the share of wind power products exported has increased rapidly, in line with expectations. The international market is gradually opening up, and overseas exports are growing rapidly. The company's overseas sales are growing rapidly, and the overseas market has become the company's future business growth point. The share of overseas sales revenue increased from 19.5% in the first half of last year to 34.6% in 2016. The company's overseas sales rely on GE of the United States to open up the market. The company's products account for 51% of GE's sales purchases. GE added orders for post-market wind power products this year, and GE's sales reached 3 billion yuan. The company anticipates a significant increase in exports to the European market in 2018. The long-term goal for wind power products is 50% of exports, of which GE and other regions each account for half. Maintaining the “Buy” rating, the target price remained unchanged at HK$9.19, with room for an increase of 27.1% from the current price. According to the latest forecasting model, we forecast the company's revenue for 2016-2018 of 10.34 billion yuan, 11.25 billion yuan, and 12.51 billion yuan, respectively, with basic earnings of 0.73, 0.90 and 1.10 yuan per share. Taking into account the company's performance growth rate and industry valuation, we maintain a target price of HK$9.19 based on the latest HKD exchange rate. The target price is approximately equivalent to 10.8, 8.1, and 6.6 times PE in 2016-2017. The target price has room to increase by 27.1% compared to the current price of HK$7.19, maintaining its “buy” investment rating. Risk warning: Competition in the industry is fierce, gross margin is declining; foreign market expansion falls short of expectations.

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