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广济药业(000952)点评:大金产业园停产检修 VB2或迎来新一轮涨价

西南證券 ·  Aug 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Incident: The company announced that the Vitamin B2 production line in Daikin Industrial Park will be discontinued for maintenance from September 1, 2016 to October 10, 2016. Vitamin B2 may rise in price, and the company will unleash performance elasticity. The company is the largest VB2 producer in China, with a production capacity of 4,800 tons (2,300 tons of headquarters plus 2,500 tons in Mengzhou), accounting for about 55% of the world. VB2's global production capacity is concentrated, and the company has certain pricing rights. There is sufficient momentum for subsequent price increases: 1) The production capacity of the Wuxue headquarters vitamin B2 has been moved to Daikin Industrial Park, and the operating rate decreased throughout the year after production was stopped. 2) The demand side is less sensitive to price increases: Currently, VB2 is mainly used in the feed field, accounting for about 70%, accounting for about 1% of the cost in feed, and the sensitivity to price increases is low. 3) Under the trend of stricter environmental protection, overseas competitors' vitamin production costs have increased significantly, and they are motivated to maintain price alliances. 4) According to our sensitivity tests, in 2017, if the company's VB2 price increases by 5%, it will increase the company's EPS by 0.14 yuan (about 34 million yuan). Changtou Group's promises are gradually being fulfilled, and expectations for state-owned enterprise reform are strong. After the majority shareholder changed to Hubei Changjiang Investment Group, there have been many positive changes in the company's fundamentals: 1) Reversing losses in the past few years and promising “positive net profit for 2015-2017”; the entry of Long Term Investment is gradually showing a positive effect on the company's marketing and management. 2) Long-term investment also promised to fully support the company's development plans and goals, actively invest in the development and expansion of the company's existing business and products, with strong expectations for future asset injection. 3) As an important platform for listed companies under Hubei, it is expected to reform state-owned enterprises. Profit forecasting and investment advice. Considering the impact of the non-public offering not going smoothly, EPS is expected to be 0.63 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.85 yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 34 times, 29 times, and 25 times, respectively. Considering the company's basic orientation and strong expectations for state-owned enterprise reform, the “buy” rating is maintained. Risk warning: State-owned enterprise reforms may fall short of expectations, and product price increases or fall short of expectations.

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