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南国置业(002305)中报点评:经营拐点确定、静待国改花开

國金證券 ·  Sep 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment logic performance has reversed losses and sales have continued to improve: The company released an interim report on August 19. In the first half of the year, it achieved operating income of 1.37 billion dollars, an increase of 126.8% over the previous year, and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.5 billion yuan, an increase of 104.0% over the previous year, successfully reversing losses since the 2014 annual report. The company achieved sales of 2.55 billion dollars in 2015, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year. The sales volume for the first half of this year was 1.52 billion yuan, which is expected to exceed 4 billion dollars for the whole year, with a growth rate of more than 56%. Benefiting from regional markets, inventories have increased significantly: since the beginning of this year, the real estate market in key second-tier cities has been hot, and the sales area and sales value of commercial housing in Nanjing and Wuhan, where the company's projects are located, have risen to varying degrees. The company currently has 970,000 square meters of land reserves, mainly distributed in Wuhan and Nanjing, which have good real estate markets. Among them, Wuhan's Changdong project partners are Power Construction Real Estate and Wuhan Real Estate, and Nanjing's China Storage Phase II project partners are Power Construction Real Estate and China Storage Development. The company's equity ratio is 26%. The above projects are located in core areas such as central business districts and subway hubs planned by Wuhan City and Nanjing City. As regional land prices rise, inventory value has increased markedly. According to estimates, the company's land value has increased by 37.1% over the past year. Relying on the resources of Electric Construction Real Estate and competing for opportunities in transportation nodes: In 2014, Dianjian Real Estate became the controlling shareholder of the company, and as a result, the company became a real estate listing platform for central enterprises. The company and Dianjian Real Estate have collaborated to develop projects such as Fanyue International, Fanyue City Plaza, and Mingyue House. In addition, the company has also successively acquired land in Nanjing and other places, gradually moved out of Wuhan and laid out throughout the country. Relying on the China Power Construction Urban Rail Transit PPP project, it is located at major transportation hubs in the city. On July 4, 2016, the company issued an announcement to complete targeted issuance. The total number of shares issued was over 270 million shares, and raised more than 1.5 billion yuan in capital. The issue price was 5.64 yuan per share. The capital raised will be used for projects such as South China Center Phase I and Phase II and Tan Hualin. Actively invest in creative industrial parks and have a wide range of businesses: In terms of commercial real estate development and operation with significant advantages, the company's city square and home square product lines are quite mature. In 2016, on the basis of deep cultivation in Wuhan, the company expanded commercial channels in Nanjing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Beijing, etc., to improve the service quality of the company's products from various perspectives of product, construction, delivery and operation. The company vigorously promotes asset securitization, extends the industrial chain, and tries to achieve asset-light operations and brand replication. Investment recommendations We expect the company to achieve an EPS of 0.22 yuan in 2016, corresponding to the current stock price of 26PE, and be given a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk indicates real estate market risk; some project operation risks

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