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丽鹏股份(002374)点评:被忽略的低估值PPP园林股 增发助力再腾飞

海通證券 ·  Aug 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  An established leading company for anti-counterfeiting bottle caps. The company's main business is related to the production and sale of aluminum composite anti-counterfeiting printing and anti-counterfeiting bottle caps. Downstream customers are mainly concentrated in companies such as liquor, health wine, beer, wine, pharmaceuticals, olive oil, and high-end drinking water. With an annual production volume of 2 billion bottle caps, it is the largest manufacturer of composite anti-counterfeiting printed aluminum plates and caps in China. As of June 30, 2016, the Sun Shiyao family was the actual controller of the company, holding a total share ratio of 26.87%. The former Huayu Garden shareholders held a total of 15.91% of the company's shares; they acquired 100% of Huayu Garden's shares to create a “beautiful China”. Affected by the three public consumption policies in 2012, the liquor industry entered a period of deep adjustment. In 2014, the company acquired 100% of Huayu Garden's shares in the form of “share+cash”, with a transaction consideration of 999 million yuan. Huayu Garden is headquartered in Chongqing. Since its establishment, it has been committed to further developing the southwest market, promising not less than 105 million, 130 million, 169 million and 198 million in net profit in 2014 and 2015, both completed Performance promises. In the first half of 2016, Huayu Garden achieved a net profit of 657.709 million yuan, an increase of 30.76% over the previous year. We expect to complete the promised net profit of 169 million yuan in 2016; BT projects have rich construction experience and are making every effort to promote the PPP model. Huayu Garden has extensive experience in BT project construction. The proportion of BT project construction revenue in 2012/2013 was 32.47% and 33.82% respectively. The company's long-term accounts receivable for BT projects at the end of 2015 were 926 million, far higher than the 290 million at the end of 2014. Since 2015, the company has won a total of 1,377 million PPP projects. We believe PPP will become the main model for future infrastructure construction. The company has outstanding pioneering advantages and good government relationships. At the same time, relying on the financing platform of listed companies, PPP The business is expected to continue to gain strength; traditional main businesses are expected to pick up, and emerging industries will be actively deployed. The liquor industry showed a recovery trend in 2016:1) Major liquor prices continued to rise; 2) Sales revenue continued to improve. As an upstream liquor packaging manufacturer, the traditional main business is expected to pick up, and the company actively uses its leading position in the industry to implement the development strategy of bottle cap+QR code and actively lay out the Internet +. Furthermore, in April 2016, the company invested 5 million yuan in the form of a capital increase, holding 12.5% of Guangzhou Baironggao's shares to lay out sports consulting services and explore new business growth points; non-public development was reviewed Approved, funds were raised to increase PPP projects. The non-public development plan was announced in the first half of 2016. The issuance price was not less than 5.20 yuan. The lock-up period was 1 year, and 903 million yuan was raised, of which 620 million was used for the construction of two PPP projects. With the capital raised, while significant financial expenses were reduced, PPP project construction capacity was significantly enhanced, and subsequent growth momentum was strong; profit forecasting and valuation. The company's 2016-2017 EPS was 0.25 yuan and 0.32 yuan, respectively (not considering this increase), taking into account: 1) the company's market capitalization is small; 2) it has significantly benefited from PPP model promotion, with high performance flexibility, giving the company a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 28-30 times in 2017, with a reasonable value range of 8.86-9.49 yuan. The first coverage gave it a “buy” rating; the main risks: order delay risk, repayment risk, and PPP promotion fell short of expectations.

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