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福成股份(600965)首次覆盖报告:穿越经济周期 借势人口周期

華泰證券 ·  Sep 2, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The funeral industry is driven by population growth and aging. The market size is expected to reach 99.3 billion yuan in 2017. Population growth and aging are an important driving force for the expansion of the funeral industry. Although the growth rate of the Chinese population has slowed, it has maintained continuous positive growth over the past 10 years. The population size reached 1.375 billion in 2015, and CAGR10 was 0.5%; on the other hand, the population age structure has changed significantly, and the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population has risen from 7.90% in 2006 to 2015 At 10.50%, the aging trend is becoming more and more obvious. China's funeral industry continues to expand along with population growth and aging trends. According to Euromonitor statistics, the market size reached 71.4 billion yuan in 2015, and is expected to rise further to 99.3 billion yuan by 2017. The funeral industry's industrial chain includes four sectors: cemetery services, funeral services, body handling, and other services. The cemetery service market is 41 billion, the private sector has a high degree of participation, and the market concentration is low. Graveyard services are the largest segment in the funeral industry. In 2015, the market volume was about 41 billion yuan, accounting for 58% of the total market size of the industry. Unlike the funeral service and body disposal sector, which is almost entirely provided exclusively by the government and where prices are strictly controlled, graveyard services are subject to the lowest degree of administrative regulation and the degree of participation of the private sector is high, yet due to obvious regional reasons, the market concentration is still very low. The market share of the top 5 domestic service providers is only 5%. There is a contradiction between consumers' demand for high-end and personalized services and the uneven operation and management capabilities of regional service providers in various regions. Increased concentration is a future development trend. Fucheng covers the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei supercity area with its geographical advantages and highly competitive prices. In 2015, Qisheng Fucheng Co., Ltd. successfully acquired the assets of the Sanhe Baota Cemetery owned by the majority shareholder by issuing shares. The cemetery covers an area of 765.25 acres, and the planned number of tombs is 125,000. Sanhe City, where the cemetery is located, is only 50 kilometers away from Beijing. At the same time, the average price of a grave site of 65,000 yuan during the 2016 H1 period was 30% to 40% cheaper than the price of graves in Beijing. The future growth of Fukunari's graveyard services will be due to an average annual price increase of 15% to 20% of the existing tomb in the pagoda cemetery and an increase in tomb sales due to epitaxial expansion, respectively. The beef cattle business controls the steady development of high-quality Australian upstream resources. The catering business has entered the beef cattle business during a strategic adjustment period. Facing the industry situation where domestic demand for beef is rising steadily and the supply gap continues, Fucheng Co., Ltd. set up a subsidiary in Australia, then acquired three ranches of Magnolia, Greenbury and Lumin in 2015 and 2016, respectively, to control Australia's high-quality upstream beef cattle breeding resources and strengthen future companies' beef cattle supply capacity. In the catering business, the profitability of the sector is enhanced by shutting down stores with poor operating conditions. Taking advantage of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei population cycle, reaping definite growth independent of macroeconomic environmental fluctuations. According to our profit forecast, the revenue scale of Fucheng Co., Ltd. will reach 1,438 billion yuan, 1,641 million yuan, and 1,793 billion yuan respectively, up 7.0%, 14.1%, and 9.3% year-on-year respectively; net profit attributable to the parent company in 2016-2018 will reach 189 million yuan, 226 million yuan, and 263 million yuan, respectively, up 13.5%, 19.9%, and 16.4% year-on-year, respectively. The 2016-2018 EPS was 0.23 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.32 yuan, respectively. Using the segmented valuation method, Fucheng shares were given a target market value range of 12 to 13 billion yuan for 6 months, corresponding to a target price range of 14.66 to 15.88 yuan, and for the first time, coverage was given a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Funeral industry regulations have been strengthened, and the direction of marketization has been reversed; food safety issues.

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