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雷曼股份(300162):三条主线投资足球产业 上下游全方位布局打造互联互通体育版图

海通證券 ·  Sep 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Focus on the three main lines and focus on the soccer industry. Lehman Co., Ltd. has entered the soccer industry since 2011. The company's investment in the soccer field mainly focuses on the following three main lines. The first is to be friends with Super Sports IP. Super sports IPs include top events such as the Olympics, World Cup, and Tour de France. These events are highly popular, recognized by consumers, and naturally recognized by sponsors and copyright dealers. Under this line of thought, the company mainly invests in and operates domestic sports super IPs: the Chinese Super League and the Chinese League 1. The second is to cultivate your own IP. There are two main soccer IPs: one is league IP (Premier League, La Liga, Chinese Super League, etc.), and the other is club IP (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, etc.). Under this line of thought, the company is striving to build its own club IP. The company currently has two club IPs, all under Lehman Investment, which was founded by the majority shareholder. Currently, although it is not part of a listed company, it operates within a listed company. The third line is sports consumption for the public. The trend of sports consumption is unstoppable, and sales of outdoor sports equipment have been extremely popular in recent years. Under this logic, the company established the “12th Man” app. Currently, the platform has 1 million users. The platform has gathered a large number of Chinese soccer fans, and efforts will be made to tap the consumption potential of this group in the future. The upstream and downstream aspects of the soccer industry chain are laid out in all directions, and the interconnected sports landscape is gradually becoming clear. For the first time in 2011, Lehman Co., Ltd. became a strategic partner of the Chinese Football Association, an official partner of the Chinese Super League, and received 12-minute live LED screen advertising resources for each game of the Chinese Super League. After 6 years of development, the company has now formed a comprehensive layout upstream and downstream of the soccer industry chain, and the connected sports landscape is gradually becoming clear. 1) In terms of industry, the company has developed commercial interests in top domestic high-end soccer tournaments such as the Chinese Super League and China League 1, acquired the new culture of Huashi, injected Swiss Profit assets (drawing on the sports marketing experience of international giants to provide coordination for the company's strategy), crowdfunded the establishment of Renren Soccer Club (the value of the club's “shell” resources is highlighted), launched the “12th person” soccer app (developing the fan economy), and gradually formed a “sports marketing resources+mobile internet+soccer club” interconnected soccer industry chain. 2) On the overseas side, following the exclusive title of the Portuguese League, Mr. Li Mantie, the actual controller of Lehman Co., Ltd., acquired the Australian Super League powerhouse, and the industry's card advantage was highlighted. 3) On the capital side, we cooperated to establish the Lehman Kaixing Sports and Culture M&A Fund, and used professional investment institutions to actively seek suitable targets to improve the sports ecosystem layout. Soccer assets are popular, and the company is involved in the core sports business. Scarcity is strong, and market leaders in industry segments are worth paying attention to. Profit forecasting and valuation. In the future, the company will continue to improve the layout of the soccer industry chain, commit to the integration of commercial resources in the soccer industry chain and the development of commercial value, and enhance the business revenue and profit level of the sports industry. Based on the huge development space of China's sports industry and the performance commitment of Huashi's new culture and expansion of technology, we expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.20 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.33 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company's business is deeply deployed in the sports field and that future expansion expectations are strong, the valuation should increase accordingly. Referring to the same transformation expectations, Jiuzhiyo's 2016 PE consensus forecast was 105 times. We gave the company the same valuation of 105 times in 2016, corresponding to the target price of 21.00 yuan. Maintain the buy rating. Risk warning. Market competition risk, merger and acquisition integration risk.

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