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广济药业(000952)点评:VB2大金产业园停产检修 控量提价VB2价格有望继续上涨 国改预期强烈

國海證券 ·  Aug 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Incident: Guangji Pharmaceutical Daikin Industrial Park requires annual maintenance of production facilities and high-voltage power supply lines. The company's Daikin Industrial Park VB2 production line will be discontinued from September 1, 2016 to October 10, 2016. Key investment points: VB2 Daikin Industrial Park stopped production and maintenance, volume control and price increases, VB2 prices are expected to continue to rise, and VB6 prices rebound. All of the company's Daikin Industrial Park VB2 production lines have been relocated from the Wuxue headquarters. Production officially began in May of this year after GMP certification. This discontinuation of production maintenance is a routine summer maintenance for vitamin manufacturers every year. It is expected that due to the scarcity of VB2 supplies and good sales transactions, the company will need time to prepare production arrangements and inventory, so the summer maintenance period will be postponed until September. This maintenance will last about 40 days. At present, the company is still adopting a volume-controlled and price-raising strategy. Various VB2 manufacturers are still very willing to control goods and maintain prices. The VB2 market price is stable at 265-280 yuan/kg. With the arrival of the peak procurement period in the fourth quarter, prices are expected to continue to rise. Due to environmental protection and cost pressure, most VB6 manufacturers have suspended reports and contracts. Currently, market prices have rebounded from 160 yuan/kg in May to around 210-220 yuan/kg in July. Prices continue to rise. Currently, the price is 240-260 yuan/kg. The company's VB6 is currently discontinued. Production and sales arrangements and inventory preparations have been prepared, and sales will not be affected. The high prices of VB2 and VB6 supported the company's high performance growth. There are strong expectations for state-owned enterprise reform. The majority shareholder of the company, Changping Investment Group, belongs to the Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The mixed reform of state-owned enterprises in Hubei Province has entered a new stage, and the overall state-owned enterprise reform process in Hubei Province has accelerated. In early August, Chutian Expressway Company, one of the top three listed platforms under the Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission, issued shares to purchase assets, and simultaneously implemented employee stock ownership plans, was approved by the Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The company is the only listed company under the Changtou Group. When Changtou Group joined Guangji Pharmaceutical, it promised to take Guangji Pharmaceutical's existing business and products as the core, actively invest in the development and expansion of Guangji Pharmaceutical's existing business and products, and introduce new products as appropriate. Changtou Group is expected to take advantage of the current state-owned enterprise reform to make better use of the role of Guangji Pharmaceutical's listed company platform. Guangji Pharmaceutical is expected to become the next target of Hubei state-owned enterprise reform. Profit forecast: At present, the domestic transaction price of VB2 is 270 yuan/kg-280 yuan/kg, and the price is stable. With the arrival of the peak procurement period in the fourth quarter, the price is expected to continue to rise. Prices of VB6 manufacturers continue to rise due to environmental protection and cost pressure. Currently, prices are 240-260 yuan/kg. The high prices of VB2 and VB6 support the company's high performance growth. The main operating performance is supported. Currently, the company's market capitalization is around 5 billion dollars. It is expected to benefit from Hubei's state-owned enterprise reform and further open up valuation space. We expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 1.07, 1.17, and $2, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Vitamin price increases are uncertain, and the progress of state-owned enterprise reform is falling short of expectations.

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