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华斯股份(002494)公司跟踪报告:涉足美妆网红变现洼地 社交电商闭环进一步完善

海通證券 ·  Sep 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The monetization of beauty influencers is still in a slump, and there is plenty of room for the future. Currently, there are three main types of influencers with fixed monetization models: 1) influencers who rely on advertising to monetize; 2) influencers at shows, including expert influencers, who mainly rely on rewards to monetize; 3) e-commerce influencers, who monetize by selling products. In the monetization of e-commerce influencers, beauty and clothing are the two main categories. From a domestic perspective, clothing was the first to be monetized. Currently, competition is relatively sufficient, while from a foreign perspective, beauty influencers are making money on a larger scale. As a result, changes in the beauty category are currently still in a slump in the country, and there is plenty of room for development. Compared with the two categories of beauty and clothing, beauty monetization has certain advantages. On the one hand, the gross margin of beauty is relatively high (the gross margin of beauty brands can reach 70% or more, while the gross margin of clothing brands is only about 50%). On the other hand, the beauty category is relatively single, and the product life cycle is longer, making it much less difficult to manage the supply chain. It is expected that as competition for monetization by influencers intensifies in the clothing category, it will drive a gradual explosion of monetization in beauty and other categories. Through future acquisitions, the company lays out the beauty influencer monetization field ahead of time, and is expected to share the dividends of beauty influencer monetization. The realization of a private brand is the core of monetizing beauty influencers. A significant difference between beauty and clothing monetization is reflected in: in clothing monetization, sales are positively correlated with the number of fans, and there is no concept of a flashpoint; in beauty monetization, beauty influencers need to accumulate a large number of fans in the early stages, and sales will only explode after reaching a critical point. This core point is the implementation of their own brand. Future Moments Private Brand discussions were initially successful. The time the company chose to invest in future moments is also the time for future moments to explore success with its own brands. Future Moments has now signed contracts with more than 20 celebrities with e-commerce monetization capabilities. Among them, Wang Yuepeng and Niko launched two new products in May and July, and various products such as cosmetic bags and makeup brushes under its own brand “NIKO BRAVO” were stolen within seconds. The total sales amount reached about 800,000 yuan, and discussions on its own brand were initially successful. In the future, as the number of fans continues to grow, the popularity of our own brand will expand, and the sales scale will be further increased. High-quality investment, social e-commerce closed loop tends to improve. The company has now formed a closed loop of Weibo fans, celebrity data mining (Youshe Technology), influencer operation (future moment), back-end connection (supply chain), and monetization (micro-selling). Investments in high-quality social electronic trademarks such as Youshe Technology and Future Moments show the company's confidence and determination to lay out the social fan field, and also highlights the company's ability to obtain high-quality resources. As investment enters the field of monetization of beauty influencers in the future, the company is expected to further expand in the field of beauty supply chain in the future, and the closed loop of social e-commerce will be further improved. Profit forecasting and valuation. Considering the raw materials market, the contribution of Fur City's subsequent rental income, and the appreciation of land used in the early period, investment income brought by participating companies are all expected to open up new growth points in performance. The base price of the 2016 non-public offering was 14.31 yuan/share, and there is still a margin of safety. In 2016-18, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 2037, 6716, and 91.17 million yuan, respectively, up 12.72%, 229.75%, and 35.76%, corresponding to EPS of 0.06, 0.19, and 0.26 yuan respectively. Referring to the 17-year PE range of the relevant comparable company, in the context of the company's industrial upgrading, considering the explosive performance brought about by the subsequent promotion of the Internet business and the scarcity of leading enterprise targets in similar businesses, the company was given 90xPE in 2017, corresponding to a target price of 17.34 yuan, to increase its holdings rating. Risk warning: The company's performance declined further, and the social e-commerce ecosystem layout fell short of expectations.

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