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兴业太阳能(00750.HK):EPC业务前景清晰

興業證券 ·  Sep 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment performance resumed rapid growth. In the first half of 2016, the company achieved operating income of RMB 2,756 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%; gross profit of 613 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 316 million yuan, an increase of 41.4% year-on-year. EPS in the first half of the year was 0.454 yuan, up 41.4% year on year. The company's performance resumed rapid growth in the first half of the year, mainly because the company's main business, photovoltaic EPC, and curtain wall green building business, both experienced restorative growth. Coupled with the confirmation of earnings from power plant sales, profits increased significantly compared to the same period. The PV EPC business confirmed a reversal. The guidelines for this year and next year are 420MW and 500MW, respectively. The company completed 170 MW of photovoltaic EPC installations in the first half of the year, with an average construction cost of 7.4-7.5 yuan/watt; in the first half of the year, a total of 440 MW photovoltaic EPC projects were started, of which 200 MW is expected to be completed in the second half of the year. In addition to the 50MW newly started in the second half of the year, it is expected that the company can complete the installation volume of 420 MW throughout this year, which is significantly higher than the 183 MW installation volume completed in 2015. Looking ahead to 2017, the company's EPC target is 500MW, which mainly includes 100-200MW of construction this year to be completed next year, 100MW photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in Shaanxi and Hunan, and some projects in Guangdong and Gansu, and new projects started next year. We believe that it is not very difficult for the company to achieve this year's goals. Whether it can successfully complete next year's EPC goals still needs further tracking. If it is successfully completed, this part is expected to contribute approximately RMB 3.3 billion and gross profit of RMB 3.3 billion and 650 million yuan respectively next year, and the performance will be outstanding. Earnings forecast update. Due to the company's EPC business progress exceeding expectations and the large increase in financial expenses, our latest forecast is that the company's 2016-2018 operating income will be 6,175, 6,878 and 7,372 million yuan respectively, net profit attributable to shareholders is 487, 523 and 595 million yuan, respectively, and EPS is 0.65, 0.63, and 0.71 yuan respectively. Our view: Societe Generale Solar (750.HK) is a pioneer in photovoltaic EPC and building facades and green building projects. The company had excellent performance in the first half of the year, mainly benefiting from increased orders. The company is currently actively selling power plants to ease debt pressure, but we expect the company's gross margin to gradually decline. We forecast that the company's 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.65, 0.63, and 0.71 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price P/E of 6.1 times, 6.3 times, and 5.5 times, respectively. Since the company's business prospects for this year and next year's guidelines are quite clear, we raised the company's target price to HK$4.95 to keep the company's rating “increase” unchanged. Risk warning: EPC progress falls short of expectations, risk of declining gross margin

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