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南风股份(300004):核电重启下游好转 中兴装备势头强劲

平安證券 ·  Sep 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points, safety view: The advantages complement each other, and a collaborative development model has been formed: the company is the largest ventilation and air treatment system design and product development, manufacturing and sales enterprise in South China. It has now formed a business model for integrated ventilation and air treatment systems, special pipe fittings business for energy engineering, and heavy metal 3D printing business for collaborative and complementary development. In the future, with the gradual release of favorable factors such as the restart of nuclear power, the company's performance will hit bottom and pick up. Nuclear power restarts, fan business is back on track: As a leader in the domestic nuclear power fan market and technology benchmark, the company will benefit from this round of nuclear power restart. It is conservatively estimated that restarting nuclear power during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will bring the company 500 million dollars in operating income and 80 million in net profit every year. Strong alliances, ZTE Equipment is gaining momentum: ZTE Equipment, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is mainly engaged in the production and sale of special pipe fittings for energy engineering, and currently accounts for more than 70% of revenue. From 2013 to 2015, ZTE Equipment, a wholly-owned subsidiary, exceeded its performance promises, and it is still probable that it will continue to fulfill its performance promises in the next few years. Significant progress, and broad prospects for 3D printing: Heavy metal 3D printing technology is an important development strategy for the company. The relevant technology is independently developed by the holding subsidiary Southern Additive and has completely independent core intellectual property rights. Nanfang Additive has completed material development and inspection work for simulated parts of nuclear power main steam pipelines. After testing by a third party authority, all performance meets the requirements of the latest technical specifications. Once it enters the market in the future, the space is extremely broad. Investment suggestion: We believe that with the restart of this round of nuclear power, the number of orders placed by the company in the nuclear power sector is expected to increase significantly, and we are optimistic about the continued performance contribution of ZTE Equipment, a wholly-owned subsidiary. It is estimated that EPS in 2016, 2017, and 2018 will reach 0.29 yuan, 0.46 yuan and 0.61 yuan respectively. The P/E values corresponding to the current stock price are 58 times, 37 times and 28 times, respectively. Considering the future entry of “heavy metal 3D printing technology” into the market and the release of orders for military nuclear safety equipment, it is likely to significantly enhance the company's profitability. For the first time, it was covered by a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: (1) the nuclear power restart process falls short of expectations; (2) the promotion of the 3D printing industry falls short of expectations.

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