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天桥起重(002523)点评:在手订单充足 战略布局立体车库和新能源

興業證券 ·  Sep 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points The special crane industry for metal smelting has bottomed out and rebounded. With the restructuring of China's economy and the removal of production capacity from traditional industries, the overall demand for metal smelting crane equipment has been insufficient in the past few years. Although the downstream production capacity of aluminum smelting cranes is excessive, benefiting from the shift in production capacity in the industry, fixed asset investment has maintained a certain growth rate. After this wave of capacity transfer, demand for cranes dedicated to aluminum smelting will gradually shrink, but the demand will be brought about by the increase in the deployment rate of copper, lead, and zinc automation equipment. We expect the company's main business to grow at a compound rate of about 10% to 15% over the next three years. Huaxin Electromechanical has sufficient orders on hand, and is expected to achieve high growth next year. On the one hand, metal smelting companies build their own power plants, and Huaxin Electromechanical's brand and recognition within the power system have certain advantages. We expect Huaxin Electromechanical's revenue to reach around 1 billion yuan next year; on the other hand, Huaxin Electromechanical's 2017 performance promise is 71.2 million yuan. If next year's actual net profit exceeds 130% of the promised net profit, relevant personnel will receive high rewards. Set up Tianqiao Liheng to enter the field of intelligent parking. In May of this year, the company and China Coliheng and others jointly established Tianqiao Liheng. So far, it has completed about 500 parking spaces and an order of about 50 million yuan, and is expected to achieve revenue of 100 million yuan next year. Relying on the company's technical advantages and government background, Tianqiao Liheng is expected to achieve growth that exceeds the average growth rate of the industry. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 to be 122 million yuan, 190 million yuan, and 226 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.14 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.27 yuan respectively; giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: fixed asset investment stalled and declined; business integration risk.

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