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永鼎股份(600105)更新报告:“一带一路”领头羊 海外大单初步落地

國泰君安 ·  Oct 12, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The market was originally worried about the company's difficulties in expanding overseas EPC orders. The signing of an MOU contract for a major power grid project in Bangladesh will dispel market doubts; the order amount is 1.14 billion US dollars, which is expected to increase net profit for listed companies by about 600 million yuan. Investment points: Maintain the target price of $14.97 and the “increase in holdings” rating. The market was originally worried about the company's difficulties in expanding overseas EPC orders. The signing of an MOU contract for a major power grid project in Bangladesh will dispel market doubts; the order amount is 1.14 billion US dollars, which is expected to increase net profit for listed companies by a total of about 600 million yuan. Considering that the MOU is not legally binding and there are certain variables, the current 2016-2018 EPS forecast is maintained at 0.35, 0.48, and 0.64 yuan, and the target price is 14.97 yuan (corresponding to 31 times PE in 2017), maintaining the “increased holdings” rating. The leader of the “Belt and Road” has strong barriers to working overseas for many years. ① The company's Yongding Taifu team has been working in the EPC market in Southeast Asian countries for more than ten years. Recently, orders have continued to be placed, which shows that the company continues to be highly recognized in these markets. Due to differences in language and culture in various regions and the need to cultivate and develop business relationships between local governments and customers, we believe that the company's competition barriers in Southeast Asia are high, and it is hoped that in the foreseeable future it will continue to play a leading role in Southeast Asia's “Belt and Road” and continue to land orders. ② There is still a huge shortage of infrastructure such as electricity and communications in Southeast Asia, and there is plenty of room for future development. ③ The promotion of the “Belt and Road” plan and the strengthening of regional services by financial institutions such as the AIIB will help the company expand its business. The development strategy is clear, and there is plenty of room for growth. ① The company has benefited in the short term from the boom in the optical communications industry; ② in the medium term from the promotion of the Belt and Road and the growth of big data network security business; ③ in the long term, it has benefited from the continuous expansion of smart driving layout and the industrial application of high-temperature superconducting materials. The development strategy is clear, the pace is clear, and there is plenty of room for future growth. Catalyst: The MOU was implemented as a procurement contract, and the execution of large orders led to an explosion in performance. Risk warning: The MOU contract itself is non-binding and variable.

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