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亚太药业(002370)深度报告:估值和业绩有望同步提升的CRO行业新秀

西南證券 ·  Sep 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Recommended logic: 1) Promotion of consistent evaluation+ release of domestic new drug R&D needs+transfer of foreign new drug research and development industry. The domestic CRO market is expected to reach 60 billion yuan in 2020, and the compound growth rate will reach 24.5% in 2017-2020; 2) The new peak is the domestic innovative drug CRO leader. The characteristic “government, industry and medical research” business model and GRDP service management system guarantee the company's high growth, and the performance promise for 2016-2018 is likely to be exceeded; 3) Actively adjust the product structure, develop from antibiotics to non-resistant businesses, and then move to high valuations and high profits CRO's capabilities are developing, and performance and valuation are expected to increase simultaneously. With regulatory changes+industry transfers, the domestic CRO industry is expected to reach 60 billion yuan in 2020. The CRO industry is at the core of the pharmaceutical R&D industry chain, and new drug development is indispensable. Benefiting from the acceleration of new drug approval speed and improved quality of approval services, demand for new drug research and development will be fully released, thereby greatly increasing CRO market capacity and optimizing the competitive pattern. We believe that the domestic CRO market is expected to reach 60 billion yuan in 2020, and the compound growth rate will reach 24.5% in 2017-2020. At the same time, overseas R&D demand continues to shift domestically, and domestic CRO leaders will enjoy global capital and R&D resources, thus further accelerating the optimization and upgrading of domestic CRO companies' services. Wholly-owned acquisitions reached a new peak, strategically entering the CRO industry. Against the backdrop of a marked slowdown in the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry, the company wholly acquired Shanghai Xingao at the end of 2015 and strategically transformed the CRO industry. In the latest fixed increase plan, a large percentage increase in the company's actual controller family holdings+new peak executive subscription binds the company's long-term interests, demonstrating confidence in the company's development. In 2016, the CRO business will become the company's main source of profit and has become the company's main strategic business. One-stop CRO enterprise with unique business model+innovative service management model. Xingaofeng can provide a one-stop service, promising an annual revenue increase of more than 25% between 2016 and 2018. At the beginning of its establishment, preclinical research was the main focus, with clinical accounting for more than 20% in 2015. The “Government, Industry and Medical Research” business model integrates the four major resources of government (government-led biotechnology parks), production (health care enterprises), medicine (clinical hospitals), and research (research institutions) to enjoy the resources of the entire pharmaceutical industry chain while ensuring the source of orders. The GRDP management system modularizes and streamlines the CRO business, shifting the company's focus to quality supervision, greatly improving service quality and efficiency, and is the company's core competitiveness. Non-antibodies have become the main force in the formulation business, and two major new products under development have increased development potential. The company has been promoting the development of the non-antibiotic business since the anti-antibody restriction order. In 2015, the non-antibody revenue surpassed the antibiotic business, and the gross profit contribution reached 2.5 times that of the antibiotic business, and the non-antibiotic business has become the main force in the formulation business. At the same time, the company also has several types of approval. Among the products being developed, the two new dosage forms, dexketoprofen extended-release patches and esomeprazole magnesium enteric pellets, have a good pattern and large space, and may drive a rapid increase in the non-antibiotic business. Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the compound growth rate of the company's revenue and net profit to mother in 2016-2018 to be 41.4% and 73.2%, respectively. We believe that if the company transitions from antibiotics to non-antibiotics, and then to a highly valued and profitable CRO, the company's performance and valuation are expected to increase simultaneously. Considering the firm attitude of the company's transformation to CRO, it may have extended development expectations. We gave the company a target market value of 12 billion yuan within half a year, corresponding to a target price of 44.8 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

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