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莱美药业(300006)调研报告:大品种战略深入推进 公司业绩有望换档提速

中投證券 ·  Sep 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The company has a rich product line, covering the three sectors of anti-infectives, specialty and medicinal drugs, and major infusions. Due to the continued impact of limited resistance, growth in anti-infective infusion products is weak. The market space for large varieties of esomeprazole, urtilins, and nanocarbon suspension injections is huge, and growth is full of momentum. Relying on the rapid progress of tenders and the continuous deepening of academic promotion, it is expected that they will enter a period of accelerated development and promote rapid growth in performance. Key investment points: Shifting gears and speeding up, and the release of specialty drugs boosts high performance growth. In the face of a sharp decline in revenue from the original two major business segments: the large infusion business and anti-infective drug business, the high-margin and pharmaceutical sector continued to grow as the key to continuously improving the company's profitability. In the future, as large-scale strategies continue to advance and product bidding work progresses one after another, high-margin characteristics and pharmaceuticals will be the core engine for the company's future performance growth. The next two years will be Esso's golden development period. The tender implementation has boosted the rapid development of Esso's sales volume. The original research crystal and benefits will expire in May 2018. Considering the new product requests from many domestic imitation manufacturers, we believe that the next two years will be a period of development for Esso Gold. Seven new provinces won the bid successfully in 2016, and the number of winning provinces expanded to 11. The winning bid price is stable. We predict that product sales will accelerate this year, and sales are likely to exceed 100 million. Nanocarbon suspension injections are exclusive in China, and the academic promotion market continues to advance. Ultrins is small in size, but has huge market space, and is a potentially large variety for the company. Nanocarbon suspension injection is the company's exclusive variety. It can completely clean the lymph and reduce the chance of recurrence of malignant tumors. It is a major variety that the company focuses on cultivating. Under the premise that the product has no medical insurance and the price of a single product is high, the terminal sold 250 million dollars in 2015. We predict that this year's company-side statistics will probably exceed 150 million. Ultilin is used in a wide range of fields. Facing a market space of 30 billion dollars for immunomodulators, it is expected to cultivate it as the company's next major variety. Investment advice: Our forecast for EPS for 16/17/18 is 0.09/0.14/0.20 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 104/62/44 times. The health insurance process in Esso has accelerated markedly this year. It is predicted that as the winning provinces and cities advance, Esso's development is expected to accelerate. As a potentially large variety of products for the company, the Ultilinsi Nano Carbon Market has broad scope for cultivation and is expected to support the development of the company's performance. In addition, the company has a wealth of products under development, a long-term investment layout in various fields, short-term growth points, and future support points. It was given 130 times PE in 2016, and the corresponding stock price was 11.70 yuan. First coverage, and a recommended rating was given. Risk warning: the risk that the promotion of large varieties falls short of expectations; the marketability risk of a decline in the domestic market of products; and the risk of failure in the company's R&D.

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