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中能电气(300062):剥离不良资产 新产业布局带来业绩拐点

國金證券 ·  Sep 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment logic divests Jin Hongwei, and it is expected that a replacement may be sought: In October 2015, the company purchased 51% of Jin Hongwei's shares in cash at a price of 298.60.5 million yuan. In January 2016, Jin Hongwei was banned from the market for 5 years by China Southern Power Grid due to bribery. In June 2016, the company decided to divest Jin Hongwei and sell it back at the original price. Originally, after the company acquired Jin Hongwei, the two sides had complementary advantages, and the business layout was basically complete. Therefore, after the divestment of Jin Hongwei, it is expected that the company may seek new partners to enrich its business layout; successfully enter the logistics vehicle operation field: On September 13, the company's subsidiary Shenzhen Zhongneng signed a “Cooperation Framework Agreement” with Beijing Jinxiu Dadi E-Commerce Co., Ltd., with a total amount of 600 million yuan. It is proposed to jointly build a new energy electric vehicle leasing and charging network project with an operating scale of 3,000 logistics vehicles. In the future, it is expected that the company will enter more electric vehicle and charging network operation projects, significantly increasing profits; successfully entering the field of photovoltaic power plant operation: The company plans to enter the field of photovoltaic power plant operation starting in the second half of 2015. The target project mainly selects agricultural and solar complementary photovoltaic power generation projects and distributed projects in the east. The grid connection situation is relatively good. Currently, it is estimated that it can contribute 10 million in profit in 2016; in addition, the company plans to invest in a 140MWp photovoltaic project in Linquan County, Anhui. In the next few years, photovoltaic power plants will become another major source of increase in the company's performance; successfully entering the field of overseas power transmission and distribution operations: In March 2016, the company formed SPE with a local Brazilian company and successfully won the bid for the Brazilian substation and transmission line franchise BOT project, with an investment amount of RMB 470 million. Although the project is expected to contribute profits until around 2019, breakthroughs in overseas markets will further enhance the company's profitability; benefiting from the release of electricity reform dividends, potential regional leaders: the company is a leading power distribution equipment enterprise in Fujian. The Fuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone and Fuzhou High-tech Zone may become one of the pilot parks for implementing electricity reform in Fujian. As an established power distribution company, the company has undertaken PV and overseas transmission line BOT projects. In the future, it will become an important participant in the PPP of Fujian Province, especially the local distribution network in Fuzhou. The valuation is based on the company's current business, and we expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.49,0.61,0.83, corresponding to the current stock price of 56x/45x/33x PE. Considering the company's divestment of Jin Hongwei, it is expected that it may be necessary to find new partners, and that projects have already been implemented in the three new directions of electric vehicle operation, photovoltaic power plant operation, and transmission and distribution line operation. There is huge room for future growth. For the first time, coverage was given, giving it a “buy” rating. Risks Electric vehicles, photovoltaic power plants, transmission and distribution operation projects are progressing less than expected; risks such as joint guarantees arising from the divestment of Jin Hongwei.

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