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世纪瑞尔(300150):招标“小年”影响主业 外延和消费金融值期待

國海證券 ·  Oct 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Event: Earnings forecast for the first three quarters of 2016: Net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies: RMB 15.1239 million to RMB 20.461,700, profit for the same period last year: RMB 415.45,800. Key investment points: The tender for the “New Year” affects the performance of the first three quarters, and the focus of the annual results is still on the fourth quarter. The company's railway video surveillance product tenders are divided into “big and small years” cycles. This year is the bidding year. The performance of the first three quarters was adversely affected, which is a normal fluctuation phenomenon. The fourth quarter of every year is the most important contributor to the company's performance, and the three-quarter report forecast mentions “expanding the scope of business, increasing R&D investment and market expenses during the reporting period”, which is expected to have a positive impact on revenue transformation in the fourth quarter. Next year is likely to be a big year for tenders, which will likely result in a significant quarterly year-on-year increase in performance (when the base for the same period this year is low). Under the general trend of artificial intelligence industry application, the company's product line will also benefit. Face recognition technology is developing rapidly, and applications of artificial intelligence in the field of public safety (such as anti-terrorism) are expected to be implemented relatively soon. At the front end of the industrial chain - video surveillance equipment has increased demand for high-definition and infrared night vision. As a leading enterprise in the field of railway industry surveillance, the company will benefit from the improvement of the railway public safety industry. E-Weixun's mergers and acquisitions continue to advance, and the expansion determination is firm. As the company's acquisition of 66.5% of the remaining shares of E-Weixin (transaction consideration of about 320 million yuan) continues to advance, the company has plenty of cash in hand and has the ability to pay for the price covered. Moreover, eVixun's profit was mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. If the acquisition is successfully completed, it is expected that the profit for the full year of '16 will increase significantly. The implementation of the company's post-extension railway service market strategy is firm. Boyuan Rongtian and Yi Weixun have all achieved results in strategic chess games. Everbright Consumer Finance Company expects to prepare for opening this year to share the dividends of the rapid development of the consumer finance industry. Everbright Consumer Finance Company (20% of the company's shares) is actively preparing for construction. Pre-opening work, such as obtaining customer expectations, developing market expectations, and preparing technical expectations, is progressing effectively, and is expected to open this year. According to iResearch's forecast, the scale of consumer credit will reach 41 trillion dollars in 2019, and it will maintain rapid growth of more than 20% in the next few years. Referring to Bank of China Consumer Finance, which has been in operation for several years, the profit expectations generated by Everbright Consumer Finance, represented by the banking department, will also be impressive. Profit forecast and investment rating: Without considering the impact of possible future mergers and acquisitions and equity participation on performance, the estimated net profit for 2016-2018 is $160 million, $195 million, $248 million, and EPS of $0.30, $0.36, and $0.46. Maintain the buy rating. Risk warning: The confirmation of orders in the railway industry fell short of expectations, the progress of mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations, and the progress of consumer finance fell short of expectations.

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