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通达股份(002560)季报点评:定增加力航空制造与高端线缆业务

華泰證券 ·  Oct 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company released its 2016 three-quarter report, and also announced plans to increase 900 million yuan for aviation manufacturing and high-end cable production line companies to achieve operating income of 1,175 billion yuan, YOY 40.53% in the first three quarters of 16; achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 69.0793 million yuan, YOY 76.40%; achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 56.711 million yuan, YOY 62.82%; and achieve basic earnings per share of 0.16 yuan. The company predicts net profit for the full year of 2016 to be 81,14-98.53 million yuan, YOY 40-70%. At the same time, the company issued a plan to privately issue no more than 854.205 million shares to Ren Jian, the company's deputy general manager, and no more than 9 other qualified specific investors, raising capital of no more than 907 million yuan for rail transit and high-end cable manufacturing projects (285 million yuan) and aviation parts manufacturing base projects (622 million yuan), respectively. The aviation manufacturing business was further strengthened, and the company to build a high-end manufacturing base for civil-military integration completed the acquisition of Chengdu Aviation Company in April 2016. The aviation company relied on major domestic aircraft mainframes such as Chengfei and Guifei, and had significant technical and market advantages in high-end aviation parts processing and medical equipment manufacturing, and had many years of technology accumulation in high-precision processing; the company's average gross margin level was over 70%, and net interest rate reached 37.91% in 2015. It is expected that Chengdu Aviation's actual profit completed in the first three quarters was 15 to 20 million yuan, contributing more than 20 million yuan to the company's listing throughout the year. 22 million yuan. Of this fixed increase, 620 million yuan will be used for the construction of a new production base for aviation companies. Previously, a tripartite agreement was signed with the Chengdu Cross-Strait Science and Technology Industry Development Zone to ensure the supply of land and other supporting facilities. The project is expected to be put into operation before the end of 17, and can achieve revenue exceeding 400 million yuan, net profit of about 96 million yuan, and comprehensively building a leading industry segment for aviation parts processing and manufacturing. The comprehensive layout of rail transit high-speed rail cables, and simultaneous efforts within and outside the network to promote cable business growth. Since 2015, tendering and procurement for ultra-high voltage and UHV projects of the State Grid has entered an intensive period, and company orders have grown rapidly. In the first half of the year, the company announced that the bid amount won by the company reached 307 million yuan, and it is estimated that new orders will exceed 700 million yuan throughout the year. The company lays out rail transit, high-speed rail, and aviation cable businesses to gradually reduce the share of direct grid business in the company's revenue, so it can achieve a steady increase in performance after investment in UHV power grids falls back. The company's “New Energy-saving Special Wire Production Line” and “Construction of a New Copper Alloy Contact Wire and Bearing Cable Production Line with an Annual Output of 8,000 Tons” projects achieved benefits of 12.816,100 million yuan in the first half of 2016. The current fund-raising project invested 280 million yuan in the construction of rail transit and high-end cable manufacturing projects, which can achieve annual revenue of 739 million yuan and net profit of 58.74 million yuan after commencement of production. As the share of high-end cable business increases, the gross margin level of the company's cable business is expected to further improve. The profit forecast predicts that the company will achieve an EPS of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.36 yuan in 16-18, and a corresponding PE of 61 times, 50 times, and 35 times, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Competition in the military aviation products market has intensified, and gross margin has declined; the development of the civil aviation products market has fallen short of expectations; and business growth related to power cables and railway lines has fallen short of expectations.

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