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深度*公司*中亚股份(300512):可持续成长的智能包装设备龙头

中銀國際 ·  Sep 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The company is a leading manufacturer of intelligent packaging machinery, especially in the field of dairy packaging machinery manufacturing. After years of deep product and technology cultivation, the company has produced the largest variety of dairy packaging equipment, the highest production capacity, the most advanced technology and the best stability in the country. The company has long-term partnerships with the three major dairy giants - Mengniu, Yili and ****. The three dairy giants contribute more than 50% of the revenue to Central Asia. Over the years, the company's comprehensive gross margin has remained at 45%-50%, and the net profit margin is above 20%. We expect the company's net profit for 16, 17, and 18 to be 150 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 210 million yuan, respectively. The initial rating is buy, and the target price is 45.00 yuan. Key points supporting the rating: The company's market share of dairy joint cup packaging equipment exceeds 80%, and it is in the leading position in the country. The company has long been committed to the manufacture of intelligent packaging machinery for liquid food. Its products are widely used in the dairy, beverage, daily chemical and other industries. It has an excellent reputation in the dairy packaging industry, far ahead of domestic peers in market share, has bargaining power, and maintains good cash flow and profitability. Market demand continues to grow due to consumption upgrades and packaging format updates. As revenue levels rise, demand for dairy products continues to grow steadily, and demand for upstream dairy packaging machinery continues to grow due to strong downstream expansion momentum. Central Asia Co., Ltd. focuses its main business on dairy packaging and enjoys the benefits brought about by the rapid increase in demand for dairy packaging equipment. Binding high-quality customers, the competition in the same industry has an absolute advantage. The company has obvious customer advantages in the three major domestic dairy giants Yili, Mengniu, and ****. The three dairy giants contribute more than 50% of Central Asia's revenue. Relying on high-quality major customers, we will establish a “satellite factory” to expand sales of plastic packaging materials and help the company blossom more. The main risks faced by ratings are greatly affected by fluctuations in downstream demand. If the growth of the food industry slows down or major adverse changes occur in the future, it will directly affect the company's business performance and bring about a downside risk. The valuation company has a clear strategy, steady operation, abundant cash, excellent product quality, huge market space, and sustainable growth. We expect net profit of 1.5, 180, and 210 million yuan in 2016, 2017, and 2018, and 56 times the 2017 price-earnings ratio corresponding to the current market value. Based on the comprehensive valuation level and the company's growth, a purchase rating was given for the first time, and the target price was 45.00 yuan.

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