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永鼎股份(600105)点评:11.4亿美金大单落地 大幅增厚未来业绩

華創證券 ·  Oct 12, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key points 1. The 1.14 billion US dollar order was signed, and the EPC overseas power project general contract of the National Policy Company followed the country's Belt and Road and went global. According to media reports, **** will pay a state visit to Cambodia and Bangladesh on 13-17. The 1.1 billion US dollar order signed between Yongding and Bangladesh is expected to be implemented as a model project for national-level cooperation. The project capital mainly comes from loans from the Export-Import Bank of China to ensure the certainty of the project. 2. EPC orders guarantee that the company's future performance continues to grow. The company's overseas projects are executed by Yongding Taifu. The listed company accounts for 51% of Yongding Taifu's shares. The execution of this project was completed over 4.5 years. According to 10% net profit, the estimated energy profit is 760 million yuan, and the company's expected increase in performance due to the listed company is expected to increase its performance by a total of 380 million yuan; the company's recent overseas EPC projects have continued to blossom, and it has just won a bid of 300 million US dollars in the early stages. The implementation of more projects ensures the company's performance growth in the next few years. 3. Zhiyuan Network continues to gain strength. In the future, IoT monitoring will welcome the explosion of the successful acquisition of Zhiyuan Network Company, and a new core target for information security in the IoT field will be added. The main product is to meet the business needs of government regulators and security departments by analyzing the Internet traffic of operators' mobile data. Typical products include log retention systems, IP address traceability systems, malicious program identification and disposal systems, and the government's 603 project; Yongding Zhiyuan achieved net profits of no less than 4500, 5560, and 65.5 million yuan in 16-18. 4. Investment recommendations We expect the company's 2016 performance to be 253 million, up 2017 performance to 496 million (orders for overseas EPC projects of 300 million US dollars and orders of 1.14 billion US dollars are expected to increase 2017 performance by 180 million US dollars), corresponding to the 16/17 PE of 43X and 22X respectively, maintaining a highly recommended rating. 5. Risk warning: risk of intense market competition; risk of new business development falling short of expectations, etc.

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