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鹏欣资源(600490)深度报告:铜钴并进强化主业、战略布局超材料及互联网金融

聯訊證券 ·  Sep 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points, copper and cobalt merge to strengthen main business, strategic layout metamaterials and internet finance Pengxin Global Resources Co., Ltd. was established in Shanghai in September 2000. It is a company mainly engaged in copper mining, smelting and trading in Congo, while also strategically investing in metamaterials and internet finance. Shanghai Pengxin Group is the controlling shareholder of the company, and Mr. Jiang Zhaobai is the actual controller of the company. In 2016, the operating income of Company H was 1,349 billion yuan, all from cathode copper trade and cathode copper production business. The gross profit of the company's main product came entirely from the cathode copper production business. The 40,000 tons/year integrated copper mining, processing and metallurgy project, cost reduction and incremental efficiency, the company indirectly holds 36.38% of the shares in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Situlu Mining by holding 50.18% of the shares in Pengxin Mining. The latter has a medium-sized high-grade Situlu open-pit copper mine with reserves of 231,600 tons of metal tons and a grade of 4.43%. It has a mining scale of 900,000 tons/year and an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons/year of cathode copper. Currently, the production of copper concentrate and cathode copper has exceeded 30,000 tons of metal, and production capacity is continuously being released. 2016 H production has increased by more than 10%, and 2016 A cathode copper is expected to exceed 34,800 tons. At the same time, the company reduces production costs through self-sufficiency of all sulfuric acid for production and waste heat recovery for power generation. In 2016, the production cost of Ht has been reduced to 20,936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85%. Based on the assumption of a copper price of 37,500 yuan/ton in October-December, the average copper price in 2016 will be 36,896 yuan/ton, and the gross profit in 2016A will reach 379 million yuan, an increase of 26% over the previous year. A fixed increase of 3.4 billion yuan to strengthen the main copper business, and plans to raise 1.7 billion yuan to build a copper and cobalt production line. On August 29, 2016, the company announced a fixed increase plan, which plans to strengthen the main business with 3.4 billion yuan. At $845 per share, it issued 201 million shares to Pengxin Group and Cheng Jianling to purchase the remaining 49.82% of the shares in Pengxin Mine. An additional 201 million shares were distributed to companies controlled by actual controllers, etc., and 1.7 billion yuan was raised to build 20,000 tons/year cathode copper and 7,000 tons/year cobalt production lines. According to the Ruimu Research Report, net profit after delivery will reach 33.723,400 million US dollars. At the same time, it cooperated deeply with Gerrard to obtain 15.625% of its subsidiary's shares for 20 million US dollars, and has the right to increase its shareholding by 19.75%. It was also agreed that its subsidiary would be responsible for the supply of all copper and cobalt raw materials for the new construction project. Through the “industry+finance” model, the new strategic layout, and the Internet finance company optimized the investment allocation. 750 million yuan participated in the fixed increase of Longsheng's shares, and laid out metamaterials. The fixed price of Longsheng Co., Ltd. increased by 7.13 yuan/share, and the latest closing price was 43.81 yuan/share. The company's investment profit has reached 3.858 billion yuan. The capital of Shanghai Tongshan Internet Finance Company was increased by 40 million yuan to deploy Internet finance. Transferring all 44.55% of Emerkinhill and divesting all chemical assets. Profit forecast and valuation: The target price is “11 yuan/share”, and the investment rating “buy”. If the fixed increase plan is completed in 2016, the 2016-2018A company's EPS is 0.067 yuan/0.098 yuan/0.131 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding BPS is 2.81 yuan/2.87 yuan/2.94 yuan respectively. Referring to comparable companies, we can give the company 16A/2017A/2018A PE 165 times /112 times/84 times, and PB 3.9 times/3.8 times/3.7 times, respectively. Considering that the fixed increase plan still needs to be approved, there is uncertainty about the completion time, so there is no merger for the time being. Based on the above assumptions, we predict that the EPS of the company's 2016A/2017A/2018A will be 0.038 yuan/0.037 yuan/0.037 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding BPS will be 1.25 yuan/1.29 yuan/1.34 yuan, respectively. The PE ratio given to the company in 2016A/2017A/2018A was 289 times /300 times /300 times, and PB was 8.8 times/8.5 times/8.2 times, respectively. Risks suggest political risks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and investment returns in excessive projects falling short of expectations

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