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东安动力(600178)产销快评:9月份销量创年内新高 中长期关注6AT进展

國信證券 ·  Oct 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Matters: Dongan Power released the September 2016 production and sales data report. In summary, in September, Dongan Power Headquarters broke through the March peak with sales data of 30,000 units, setting a new high during the year. This is in line with our expectations of “gold, nine silver, ten” in our previous report. Toan Mitsubishi's sales volume in September showed an upward trend year on year (up 32.22% year on year in January-August, 38.61% year on year in September). The high growth was mainly due to the boom in the passenger car market in September (we expect a 20% year-on-year growth rate). The downstream customers Changan Auchan, Onuo, CS35, and CX70 all sold more than 10,000 in a month. Among them, CS35 increased 24.15% year over year, and Onuo increased 13.94% year over year. We believe that after a seasonal decline in sales in August, Dongan Power's sales volume returned to a rapid growth channel in September. The sales volume of the headquarters exceeded 30,000 units for the first time, setting a new high during the year; Dongan Mitsubishi's year-on-year growth rate showed an upward trend, and it may be expected to maintain the “gold nine silver ten” market in October. The peak automobile production and sales season is coming. Sales of CX70, CS35, Onuo, and Auchan are steadily increasing. September is the peak season for the traditional car market. The year-on-year retail sales growth rates in the first three weeks reached 52%, 24%, and 29%, respectively. We expect passenger cars to grow more than 20% year on year in September. Among them, Changan Group, as one of Dongan Power's main customers, achieved steady growth in sales of core supporting models such as Auchan, CS35, CX70, and Onuo in September. Benefiting from the high growth rate of engine sales in the short term, focusing on the progress of 6AT in the medium to long term and maintaining the “buy” rating, we believe that the low sales season in the traditional car market in July and August is over, and the “gold, nine, silver ten” market directly contributed to Dongan Power engine sales volume. Looking at the short term, the passenger car market is expected to grow steadily in the fourth quarter. Dongan Power's downstream customers are mainly two high-quality automakers, Changan Automobile and BAIC Group, and sales are optimistic throughout the year; in the medium to long term, the company's 6AT products are progressing smoothly, and may be produced in small batches next year, and are expected to become a new contributor to performance in the future. We predicted that the EPS for 16/17/18 would be 0.37/0.47/0.59 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE would be 32/26/20 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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