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永鼎股份(600105)公告点评:海外工程合同取得阶段性进展

廣發證券 ·  Oct 14, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Phased progress in the US$1.14 billion contract The company announced on October 12 that the company's October 12 announcement revealed that the memorandum of understanding signed between the company and Bangladesh National Grid Corporation on large-scale upgrades, expansions and modifications of most power transmission and transformation systems in Bangladesh has made phased progress — on October 10, authorized representatives of the owner and contractor signed a formal EPC contract in Bangladesh, and is currently being approved and signed after going through internal verification procedures within the owners. It will still take time for the contract to take effect, and future performance will be effectively guaranteed. Judging from the disclosed progress, most of the company's main work in signing the contract has progressed, such as: the relevant loans have been reported and approved by the government departments; the contract commercial negotiations have been completed and approved by the Bangladesh Cabinet Economic Affairs Committee; and the EPC contract has been signed. The entry into force of the future contract is mainly the signing of relevant formalities and agreements between the two governments: the owner approves and signs the EPC contract after going through the internal verification procedures; the Bangladesh government and the China Export-Import Bank sign a loan agreement; within 30 days of the loan agreement coming into effect, the contractor submits a performance guarantee and an advance payment guarantee to the owner. The contract amount is 1.14 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 7.65 billion), divided into a 4.5-year construction period. Combined with the previous order of 300 million US dollars (approximately RMB 2 billion), it is expected to provide solid performance support for the company's traditional main business in the next few years. Yongding Zhiyuan has industry competitiveness and helps the company take the lead in the big data field. Yongding Zhiyuan is a leading provider of signal collection and analysis, business operation support, application security analysis, network security, and user behavior analysis in the telecommunications sector, and has an excellent customer base in Unicom and Telecom. With the increase in operator bandwidth brought about by the growth in mobile traffic in recent years, demand for Yongding Zhiyuan's products such as log retention, IP traceability systems, and network security will increase significantly. Yongding Zhiyuan promises that the audited net profit achieved in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will not be less than RMB 45 million, RMB 55.6 million, and RMB 65.5 million. Since the conditions for entry into force of the contract have not yet been met, the merger will not be considered yet. The EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.23 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.34 yuan respectively, giving it a “buy” rating! The risk suggests that there are still formalities for major overseas engineering contracts that have not yet been completed, and the effective time is uncertain; there is uncertainty about the ceiling of Yongding Zhiyuan's industry; and there is uncertainty about whether its profitability will remain as scale increases.

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