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航天动力(600343)点评:神舟十一号发射成功 期待长征五号飞天

Comments on Aerospace Power (600343): the successful launch of Shenzhou 11 looks forward to the long March 5 Flying Apsaras.

國金證券 ·  Oct 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Event

At 07:30:28 Beijing time on October 17, 2016, two astronauts (Jing Haipeng and Chen Dong) boarded the Shenzhou 11 manned spaceship from the Jiuquan launch base and accurately entered the scheduled orbit, marking the second stage of China's manned space program and the next city.

Comment

Two days later, when the "Tiangong II" was docked, the stay time of the astronauts was doubled: "Shenzhou 11" was China's second manned space launch three years after the Shenzhou-10 manned mission in 2013.

Two days after entering orbit, Shenzhou-11 will rendezvous and dock with the Tiangong-2 space laboratory, and two astronauts will be stationed in Tiangong-2 to fly in orbit for 30 days, twice as long as the previous Tiangong-1 astronauts, setting a new record for the longest stay in orbit of a manned spaceflight in China. After completing the combined flight, Shenzhou-11 will evacuate Tiangong-2 and return to the landing site within one day. Tiangong-2 will be transferred to independent operation mode. The astronauts will carry out space medicine, space science experiments and space application technology, on-orbit maintenance technology, space station technology experiments and science popularization activities inside Tiangong-2. The successful completion of this mission will mark China's successful mastery of manned space transportation, space station orbit rendezvous and docking technology, and medium-term space residence capability of astronauts.

The manned space program is progressing steadily, and the world's only orbiting space station will be built in 2022: China's manned spaceflight "three-step" strategy focuses on manned spaceships, space laboratories, and basic space stations, respectively. Shenzhou-11 and the previously launched Tiangong-2 are the key battle in the second stage of the second stage of China's manned space program. In April 2017, China will continue to launch the "Tianzhou-1" cargo spacecraft, rendezvous and docking with Tiangong-2, and conduct propellant replenishment tests, which will mark the end of the second phase of the second stage of China's manned space program. The third step of China's manned spaceflight plans to build a basic space station, including a core module, a cargo spacecraft, a manned spacecraft and two other modules for experiments and other functions, with a total weight of less than 100 tons. The scale will not exceed that of the International Space Station. Tianhe-1, the station's core module, is expected to be launched before 2018 and the overall construction of the station will be carried out around 2020. After 2022, China's space station will be fully operational, and it is expected to become the only space station in orbit in the world.

The "long March 5" is just around the corner, and a new generation of carrier rocket type spectrum is taking shape: in the future, manned spaceflight and deep space exploration missions cannot be carried out without the development of heavy carrier rocket technology. In early November, the new generation of large carrier rocket "long March 5" will be launched for the first time at the launch base in Wenchang, Hainan, and the type spectrum of a new generation of carrier rockets in China is gradually taking shape. The "long March 7" series rockets that have completed their maiden flight will become the core of China's new rockets and will undertake 80% of the space launch missions in the future, while the "long March 5" will greatly enhance the carrying capacity of our rockets. It is expected that the series of rockets will be used in the Tiangong Space Station, the construction of the Beidou navigation system, the third phase of the lunar exploration project, and other deep space exploration projects. In addition, China has begun to demonstrate that the new generation of medium-sized carrier rockets "long March 8" and the new generation of heavy carrier rockets "long March 9" will be aimed at commercial satellite launch missions in the future. and manned lunar landing, Mars sampling return missions, or more distant planet exploration.

The development of aerospace power comes first, and the liquid rocket engine gradually becomes a system: the carrying capacity of the carrier rocket depends on the thrust level of the rocket engine. The new generation of carrier rockets in China are mainly powered by YF-100 and YF-77 liquid engines newly developed by the sixth Institute of Aerospace Science and Technology Group. YF-100 is the first generation of 120t high pressure supplementary combustion (also known as staged combustion cycle) liquid oxygen kerosene rocket engine in China, which has been used as the booster and core primary power of long March 7; YF-77 is a gas generator cycle high-thrust hydrogen-oxygen engine specially developed for long March No. 5 core. These two new engines use non-toxic and environmentally friendly liquid fuel, which not only improves the engine performance, but also greatly improves the rocket carrying capacity of our country, which makes it possible to build a space station in our country.

Investment suggestion

The sixth Aerospace Institute, the controlling shareholder of Aerospace Power, monopolizes the production and manufacture of liquid engines for rockets in China. This year, the number of aerospace launches in China will exceed 20 for the first time, which is "the densest launch year in history" and will directly benefit the efficiency of the sixth Aerospace Academy. The Aerospace Science and Technology Group has set the asset securitization rate target of 45% at the end of the 13th five-year Plan (currently only 15%). It is expected that the Aerospace Science and Technology Group will launch a large-scale asset restructuring this year. The comprehensive deepening reform plan and the 13th five-year Plan disclosed by the sixth Aerospace Academy on March 30 this year.

The outline of the comprehensive plan proposes to build an international first-class aerospace power company and become the vanguard of the group's professional subsidiaries.

In 2008, under the strong promotion of Lei Fanpei, chairman of the first Aerospace Science and Technology Group and former president of the sixth Academy, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group supported the sixth Academy, the "Aerospace liquid Power National team", to become bigger and stronger by integrating the aerospace liquid power assets of the first and eighth Academies to the sixth Academy. Eight years later, industrial integration has basically matured, and capital operation has become an integral part of the topic. We expect to achieve a breakthrough in aerospace engine asset securitization in the near future. Aerospace Power, as the only platform for aerospace engine asset integration, has a broad space. From a long-term point of view, the target of the 13th five-year Plan of the sixth Aerospace Academy is 34 billion yuan in annual income and 1.7 billion yuan in annual profits, and the market capitalization target after asset integration should be more than 50 billion yuan. We give Aerospace Power a "buy" rating, with a target price of 40 yuan in the next six months.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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