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东安动力(600178)三季报点评:短期看好四季度销量 长期看好6AT落地

國信證券 ·  Oct 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Revenue increased 116.20% in the first three quarters, net profit increased 92.67%, and Dongan Power achieved revenue of 1,771 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2016, an increase of 116.20% over the previous year; realized net profit of 71.79 million, an increase of 92.67% over the previous year. Looking at the split reporting period, Q3 in 2016 achieved revenue of 573 million yuan, an increase of 170.78% over the previous year; realized net profit of 16.14 million (loss of 30.17 million in the same period last year). Q3 profit was slightly lower than expected, but still maintained a high year-on-year growth rate. In 2016, the Q3 Dongan Power Division achieved net profit of 5.98 million and investment income (mainly Dongan Mitsubishi) of 10.16 million. Among them, the headquarters reversed losses year on year and continued positive growth in the second quarter, but profitability declined; Dongan Mitsubishi's net profit increased significantly from Q3 in 2015 (the reason for the low base in Q3 in 2015 may be due to increased sales expenses due to the 4G152M recall). In summary, Dongan Power achieved high year-on-year growth in revenue and profit in the third quarter, but profitability declined from the second quarter, causing the third quarter results to fall short of our previous expectations. The reason why the performance was slightly lower than expected was mainly the increase in manufacturing costs due to the expansion of production capacity and adjustment of production lines due to popular sales of the company's products (operating costs in Q3 were 3 percentage points higher than in Q2, and the price of product terminals was basically the same). Q3 engine sales increased by 190.6%. Popular models from downstream customer Changan helped Q3 headquarters sell 73,000 engines, up 190.60% year on year, while Dongan Mitsubishi's sales volume was 90,000 units, up 46.6% year on year. The main source of sales growth in the headquarters was the new model Changan Auchan (29,000 units sold in Q3); the main source of sales growth for Dongan Mitsubishi was the new model Changan CX70 (26,000 units sold in Q3). At the same time, the BAIC Weiwang M30 promotion in September sold 14,000 vehicles in a single month, returning to the growth channel. We believe that due to the concentration of year-end promotional activities in the car market, the purchase tax relief policy at the end of the year or adjustment of expectations will promote early consumption in the passenger car market. At the same time, Auchan's production capacity may be further expanded. Dongan Power's downstream support volume is expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter, and profits are likely to improve. Risks suggest that the car market in the fourth quarter will not meet expectations. The launch of 6AT products or failure to meet expectations is optimistic about sales in the fourth quarter in the short term. Long-term optimism about 6AT implementation. Maintaining a short-term view of purchasing tax concessions at the end of the year, the year-end purchase tax concession is expected to continue to increase production and sales for downstream customers, and Dongan Dynamics profit is likely to improve in the fourth quarter; in the long run, 6AT may be launched to support Zotye next year, and future growth can be expected. Considering the increase in manufacturing costs in the third quarter, we lowered our performance expectations and predicted that EPS for 16/17/18 would be 0.24/0.30/0.37 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 50.3/39.2/31.7. Maintain a “buy” rating.

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