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中洲控股(000042)季报点评:禀赋优质 成长典范

平安證券 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment matters: The company announced its 2016 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved operating income of 5.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.5%, and net profit of 81.887 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.2%, corresponding to EPS of 0.125 yuan, in line with market expectations. Ping An's view: The decline in gross margin combined with the impact of taxes and fees caused a decline in performance: In the first three quarters, the company's revenue increased 70.5% year-on-year, net profit fell 80.2%, and the sharp decline in net profit was mainly due to: 1) The land acquisition costs for the Shanghai Junting Project and the Chengdu Zhongzhou Central City State Project, which were mainly settled during the reporting period, were high. Compared with the Shenzhen Zhongzhou Holdings Financial Center project settled in the same period last year, gross margin declined significantly. The company's overall gross margin fell 16.6 percentage points year-on-year in the first three quarters; 2) The impact of deferred income tax led to an increase of 707.56 million yuan in taxes during the reporting period. Benefiting from the recovery in the property market, our grassroots research company, the selling price of Jincheng Lake in Chengdu has risen from 1.1 w/square meters at the beginning of the year to 1.9 w/square meters now. As the project enters the settlement cycle, it is expected that the company's gross margin will gradually rise. The transaction performance is impressive, and there are various land acquisition channels: the company adheres to the development strategy of “high turnover, scale expansion, strict control, and increased efficiency”. Judging from the amount of cash received from selling products and providing services, it achieved sales of 8.54 billion dollars in the first three quarters, an increase of 113.9% over the previous year, and completed 81.2% of the annual plan (10.52 billion), far exceeding the national commercial housing sales growth rate over the same period (41.3%), and business scale continued to expand. The company continues to be deeply involved in the strategic layout of the three core regions of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Midwest. It acquired the Hong Kong Causeway Bay project during the period to achieve dual integration in the Hong Kong region, compete for the Chengdu project, and further improve the regional layout of Chengdu, adding a total of 671,000 square meters of construction. Considering the company's expansion development strategy, it is expected that the company will continue to actively expand project acquisition channels and increase high-quality land reserves. Continued expansion of financing capacity, equity incentives, and employee shareholding benefits: Following the completion of a fixed increase of 2 billion dollars for the majority shareholders last year, the company once again launched a fixed increase plan of 3,511 billion dollars, all of which are used for investment in real estate projects, providing sufficient ammunition for subsequent expansion and strengthening. Currently, the fixed increase has been reviewed and approved by the Development Review Committee. Following the introduction of equity incentives in 2015, the company further implemented employee stock ownership plans during the period. The purchase has now been completed, holding a total of 2.75% of the company's share capital, with an average transaction price of 15.75 yuan/share. Equity incentives and employee shareholding plans bind the interests of management, employees and shareholders to help the company develop by leaps and bounds. There were sufficient advance accounts, and the debt ratio declined slightly: As sales exceeded settlement revenue, the company's advance payments at the end of the period rose 67% from the beginning of the year to 9.16 billion dollars, 1.81 times the total revenue in 2015, laying the foundation for future performance growth. Cash on hand at the end of the period was $5.87 billion, representing 242% of long-term and short-term debt maturing within one year. The balance ratio and net debt ratio excluding advance receipts were 51.7% and 91.3%, respectively, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year. Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating: The company's 2016-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.64 yuan and 0.78 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 31.8 times and 25.8 times, respectively. The company relies on the majority shareholder Zhongzhou Group and continues to provide land and financial support, demonstrating the importance it attaches to listing platforms and providing strong backing for listed companies to grow bigger and stronger. Continuously implement the “high turnover and scale expansion” development strategy. Equity incentives and employee shareholding bind employee interests, sales growth rate and scale have increased rapidly, and the execution ability of private enterprises to enter has improved dramatically. The company is a rare real estate company with the characteristics of sustained high growth in the current market. The majority shareholders and listed companies in Shenzhen are rich in land resource reserves, and the Golden Platform project left over from history is also expected to make a breakthrough and maintain a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: Performance and sales volume fall short of expectations.

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