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三联商社(600898)深度报告:国美智能手机大平台 安全手机百亿市场龙头崛起

方正證券 ·  Oct 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Gome smartphone platform. The actual controllers of Sanlian Trading Company are Huang Guangyu and Gome Group. The traditional business is home appliance retail in Shandong. There is competition among peers. All of them will soon be divested. After the acquisition of Dejing Electronics, the company will transform into a Gome smartphone platform. According to the company's previous announcements and the consistent strategy of home appliance stores, the development of related independent brand mobile phones has gained a place in Gome's annual sales volume of tens of millions of units, which has become an important focus for the company in the future. A core member of the National Alliance for Fully Autonomous, Controllable, and Secure Mobile Phones. Four manufacturers, Zhanxun, Yuanxin, Dejing, and Hongba, signed strategic cooperation agreements to establish a secure mobile phone industry alliance and launch the Zitan Secure Mobile Phone Plan. Compared to traditional secure phones, Alliance Secure Mobile uses Android's Yuanxin dual operating system and Spreadtron customizes chips to maximize information security and confidentiality in an era where the dividends of mobile intelligence can be enjoyed, bringing great performance flexibility to the company. BlackBerry's peak market capitalization is $83 billion, and there is huge space in the secure phone market. Since the popularity of iPhone-driven smart mobile phones, there has not been a single phone that has both powerful intelligent functions and secure encryption. We believe that Dejing Electronics and the secure mobile phone industry alliance behind it are expected to rise to become the No. 1 secure phone in China. Performance is extremely flexible, and secure phones are the biggest highlight. Currently, we conservatively predict that the net profit of Sanlian Trading Company for 16-18 will be 70 million yuan, 140 million yuan, and 200 million yuan, and EPS will be 0.28 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.8 yuan. However, great attention should be paid to it. According to industry feedback, the demand for the secure mobile phone industry in 2017 is expected to be over 1 million units, and the industry alliance's shipment volume is expected to reach more than 500,000 units, which may bring huge profit elasticity of 1-2 million to Dejing Electronics. There is room for continued increase in profit forecasts in the future. The medium- to long-term target price depends on the market value of 10 billion dollars, and the target price is 6 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 23.72 yuan. Recommended ratings. Risks suggest that the volume of secure mobile phone shipments falls short of expectations, competition in the ODM market is fierce, and Gome's independent brand promotion falls short of expectations, etc.

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