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海默科技(300084)三季报点评:业绩低于预期 核电后市场卡位优势确立

國泰君安 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Conclusion: The company announced revenue of 208 million yuan and profit of 2,094 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2016, with an increase of -24.43% and 150.92% respectively, lower than our expectations. On the one hand, it was dragged down by the sharp decline in oilfield equipment revenue and the sharp increase in financial expenses. On the other hand, most of the revenue of the subsidiary Qinghe Machinery was confirmed in the fourth quarter; it is determined that oil prices will fluctuate and rise. Next year is the first year of growth in the company's performance. After investing in 25% of the shares of CNNC Jiahua, the company has become the most flexible post-nuclear power market (spent fuel) concept stock. The development strategy of “market capitalization+major transformation” kept the 2016-2018 EPS unchanged at 0.11/0.25/0.37 yuan, kept the target price unchanged at 20 yuan, and maintained an increase in holdings rating. The short-term rebound in oil prices is difficult to improve performance. Next year will only be the first year for the company's performance to grow. Although international crude oil prices remained volatile around 50 US dollars/barrel in the third quarter, the International Energy Company still did not increase capital investment. The company's main oilfield equipment business revenue and profit have not improved. Only when the oil price exceeds 60 US dollars/barrel and remains for more than half a year can bring about a reversal in the equipment industry; the company's current investment in the US in the Niobrara joint development block and the Permian Basin independent development block are still close to the break-even point. Currently, oil prices have not brought obvious performance elasticity, nor will they rashly drill wells to operate. Judging that subsequent oil prices will fluctuate and rise again next year. First year of growth in the company's performance. There is huge space in the nuclear power aftermarket, and the company has become the most flexible concept stock in the post-nuclear power market. According to our grassroots research, CNNC's large-scale spent fuel reprocessing project in Gansu invested about 30 billion yuan, non-standard equipment exceeded 7 billion yuan, centralized bidding in 2017, and put into use in 2023. The average annual market exceeded 1 billion, and entry barriers were extremely high. Meanwhile, CNNC Jiahua has comprehensive advantages in qualifications, geography, and connections, and has a clear card position. Compared with the current revenue of 60 million yuan, performance elasticity is extremely high. Risk warning: International oil prices continue to fall and exchange rates fluctuate.

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