Main points of investment
Event: sunshine shares issued a pre-announcement of third-quarter results, and it is estimated that the net profit loss of shareholders belonging to listed companies in the first three quarters is about 290 million-390 million yuan (compared with a profit of 18.09 million yuan in the same period last year). It is estimated that the current loss in the third quarter is 1.54-254 million yuan (a profit of 34.73 million yuan in the same period last year).
Comments:
Performance loss has no effect on intrinsic value and long-term development. The company expects the net profit and loss of shareholders belonging to listed companies in the first three quarters to be about 290 million yuan to 390 million yuan, a decrease of 1703% Murray 2256% over the same period last year. The main reason is that the sales revenue of residential products decreased in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, and asset losses resulted from the termination of operating leasing projects in the current period. The company has previously actively sought transformation due to greater operating pressure, and the current loss is expected to enhance the driving force for development.
Greater intrinsic value provides a margin of security. In the first half of 2016, the rental rates of projects such as Sunshine Mansion and Chengdu Jiuyan Bridge increased significantly, and the company's rental income is expected to increase steadily. Benefiting from the continuous decline in the risk-free rate of return, the value of commercial property has increased significantly according to the discounted cash flow method. The company holds commercial properties are located in the core first-and second-tier cities, each year has a stable rental income of 200 million to 300 million yuan. From the accounting value, the investment real estate held by the company is worth 5.041 billion yuan, but the real intrinsic value is close to 7 billion yuan.
Investment advice: sunshine shares focus on the layout of commercial properties in first-and second-tier cities. The former stock price of the company is much lower than that of RNAV, the margin of safety is extremely strong, and the real value cannot be concealed at the end of the reorganization. From 2016 to 2018, the company's EPS is expected to be 2.3,3.1,3.8yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE of 12,8.9and 7.2times to maintain an "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: monetary policy tightens.
