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宝胜股份(600973)深度报告:中航工业潜在电气板块上市平台 业绩驶入快车道

海通證券 ·  Oct 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Leading domestic wire and cable enterprises, performance is on the fast track. The company is the largest comprehensive cable manufacturer in China. The company's revenue for the past 5 years has a CAGR of 17%, which is far higher than the industry average (5%). In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 12.988 billion yuan (YOY 6.79%) and net profit of 161 million yuan (YOY 24.73%). In the first half of 2016, the company's sales and net profit increased by 38.29% and 84.28% year-on-year respectively. According to the 2016 semi-annual report, the company's projects such as electroplated conductors for aviation wiring harnesses, elevator cable harnesses, and military cable production capacity support have also entered the equipment order and installation stage, and it is expected that they will all be put into operation by the end of August. With the production of high-end products, the company's performance is expected to enter the fast track in the future. Currently, China's wire and cable industry has the characteristics of low industrial concentration and a low to medium product structure. Referring to the current pattern of “the strong is always strong” of foreign cable companies, the company has a clear competitive advantage as the largest comprehensive wire and cable manufacturer in China. As market concentration increases, the company is expected to gain more market share. Currently, although the overall growth rate of the cable industry is declining, demand for cables in segments such as power grids and rail traffic is still huge. At the same time, the company is transforming high-end special cables through endogenous and epitaxial development, and competitiveness will be further enhanced. Listed in China's aviation industry, it is expected to enter the military cable industry and share the feast of weapon replacement. As the company was merged into the China Aviation Industry Group in 2014, according to the company's 2014 annual report, with the help of China Aviation Industry, the company successfully held Baosheng product promotion conferences and carried out cable cooperation with a number of military enterprises. The company is expected to occupy a place in the military industry in the future. Considering only fighter jets and ships, we expect that in the next 30 years, the military cable market space will reach 490-71 billion yuan. The company is expected to get its share of the cake, and military performance will gradually be released. A potential listing platform for the Chinese aviation industry in the electrical sector, with the possibility of asset integration. Since being listed in the China Aviation Industry Group, the company has become a listing platform for potential electrical equipment under the group. According to NetEase Finance, Wu Xiandong, the deputy general manager of China Aviation Industry, stated at the November 11, 2014 Zhuhai Air Show that in the next 3-5 years, he hopes the group's asset securitization rate will reach 80%. In 2013-15, the Group gradually completed the overall listing of transport aircraft, helicopters, avionics, electromechanical, financial and other business segments. In addition to research institutes and military aircraft business, major industrial enterprises in China's aviation industry have all entered listed companies. Currently, the asset securitization rate of China Aviation Industry is 60.95% (as of the end of 2015), which is still far from the 80% target. We believe that in the context of the listing of the Group as a whole by business segment, there is a possibility of asset integration for Baosheng Co., Ltd. as a listing platform for electrical assets in the future. Profit forecasts and investment advice. Considering that the company is already listed in China's aviation industry, it is expected that military products will gradually contribute to performance around 2018. Considering the company's acquisition of Nissin Transmission and Shanghai Anjie's performance commitments, the 2016-18 EPS is estimated to be 0.32, 0.42, and 0.63 yuan, respectively. Referring to the current average PE of 37 times that of comparable companies in 2016, the company was given 30 times PE in 2016, with a target price of 9.60 yuan. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. Risk warning. Competition in the power cable industry is intensifying; military orders are uncertain; and state-owned enterprise reform falls short of expectations.

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