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翠微股份(603123)三季报点评:转型加速期 静待修法落地

國泰君安 ·  Oct 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Investment suggestions: Haidian District is rich in quality education resources, and stricter regulatory policies highlight the value of the existing capital platform. Cuiwei is expected to become an important resource integration platform in Haidian District in the future. The comprehensive education platform+safety margin fully forms the core total of our recommendation. Due to the landing+commercial pressure, the layout will be accelerated, and the target price of 13.5 yuan will be maintained, and the rating of increasing holdings will be maintained. The company's biggest focus in the future is still high quality education resources and asset integration expectations in the region. In recent years, individual department stores have generally faced operating pressure, and the amendments to the Public Promotion Law will meet again at the end of October. It is expected that the probability of passing is high. At that time, the company's layout into a comprehensive education platform is expected to accelerate. Considering weak regional demand, the 2016-2018 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.22/0.24/0.27 (previously 0.25/0.26/0.27). Individual department store operations are under pressure, and excellent asset quality needs to be activated. In recent years, due to increased competition in the industry environment and weak demand for terminals, the growth of individual department stores has generally declined due to stagnant expansion, and Cuiwei's revenue/net profit fell 7.5%/38.8% respectively in the first 3Q. Considering that 1H Beijing department store sales fell 10% year on year, we still have to wait for the inflection point of short-term commercial operations. 3Q's short-term loans fell to zero, with book cash of 1.28 billion yuan plus 190,000 square meters of owned properties in the core business district plus 700 million yuan in saleable financial assets, making the company's revaluation more than 12 billion dollars and a premium rate of about 120% compared to the current market value. The future development of real estate financial instruments such as REITs will effectively activate the value of the company's assets and provide cash flow. Amendments to the Public Promotion Law are about to be implemented, and education themes are expected to be strengthened. Among the listed companies currently controlled by Haidian state-owned assets, Sanju Environmental Protection has surpassed 50 billion in market capitalization. Sino-Thai Bridge (11.2 billion market capitalization, 30.1% of shares), and Cuiwei shares (5.5 billion market capitalization, 62.5% of shares). As the capital platform with the smallest market capitalization and the highest shareholding ratio, Cuiwei is expected to increase significantly in resource inclination in the future. The amendments to the Public Promotion Law will be discussed during the 10.31-11.6 period, and it is expected that there is a high probability that it will be passed. The 2014 asset revaluation cost of state-owned assets is 13.2 yuan/share, and the current position has a strong margin of safety. Risk warning: reforms are progressing slowly; performance continues to decline.

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