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腾达建设(600512)三季报点评:受益PPP/轨交爆发 经营现金流大幅改善

國泰君安 ·  Oct 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Introduction to this report: The company's three-quarter report shows net profit of about 0.06 billion, a sharp increase of 206% over the previous year. Considering the explosion of PPP/rail transport/transportation investment in Zhejiang Province, compounding the layout expectations of emerging industries such as hydrogen energy, the target price was maintained at 7.5 yuan to increase holdings. Key points of investment: Increase in holdings. The company's revenue/net profit for the first three quarters of 2016 was approximately 21 (+4.3%)/0.6 (+387%) billion yuan, respectively, in line with expectations, including a net profit of 0.016 billion yuan (+206%) in a single quarter in Q3. We maintain a forecast of 0.07/0.18 for the company's 2016/17 EPS. Considering fixed increases to complete capital strength strengthening, PPP rail investment exploded, and the announcement of the third batch of PPP demonstration projects boosted PPP implementation to a climax, maintaining a target price of 7.5 yuan. Corresponding to the 2016/17 PE valuation, it increased its holdings. Single-quarter results continued to soar, and operating cash flow improved dramatically. 1) The company's net profit for the 1/2/3 quarter was 54 (-82%) /4383 (+350%) /1,576 (+206%), and the performance continued to increase; 2) The gross profit margin was 12.6% (+0.89pct), and the net profit margin increased significantly by 2.73% (+2.33pct), and the operating tax of 42.45 million (-40%) had a significant impact on net profit, with a slight increase of 7.14% (+0.68pct); 3) Net operating cash flow of 67.47 million yuan (+153%), Mainly due to a decrease in advance payments and payment guarantees; 5) The company's accounts receivable during the reporting period were about 0.274 billion yuan (-47%), accounting for a small share of 3.7% of total assets. Asset impairment losses were about -10.58 million yuan (-181%), and the overall risk of accounts receivable was low. In the face of the rail transport/PPP explosion, emerging industries such as hydrogen energy are on the way. 1) The rail transit industry is expected to invest 43% per year in the next 3 years, making it one of the fastest growing infrastructure segments; 2) Zhejiang Transportation Facilities Investment 1.2 percent (1 times higher than the 12th Five); 3) The municipal premium qualification advantage is great. The winning project in January-September is about 3.34 billion billion, an increase of 328% over the previous year, of which the PPP project amount is 2.56 billion (89% of 2015 revenue), PPP flexibility is high; 4) Complete with a fixed increase of 2.6 billion (fixed price increase) 4.22 yuan/share), which will accelerate PPP implementation after capital reinforcement; 5) Participate in the establishment of the largest domestic hydrogen energy industry fund (10 billion) and establish the Panshi Tengda Industrial Fund, adding highlights to the high growth of the main business. Core risks: PPP progress falls short of expectations, performance growth falls short of expectations, etc.

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