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中兴商业(000715)季报点评:业绩符合预期 物业价值仍然突出

光大證券 ·  Oct 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Performance was in line with expectations. On the evening of October 24, 1-3Q2016 net profit fell 1.03% year on year. On the evening of October 24, the company announced the report for the third quarter of 2016:1-3Q2016 achieved operating income of 1,805 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.29%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 031 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 0.11 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.03%; net profit after deducting non-return to the parent company was 54 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 0.19 yuan, down 16.88% year on year. The performance was basically in line with our expectations. Looking at the quarterly split, 3Q2016 achieved total operating income of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.46%. The decline was slightly less than the 22.53% decline in 2Q2016, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.07 billion yuan, up 7.69% year-on-year, and higher than the 3.91% year-on-year increase in 2Q2016. Gross margin increased 1.57 percentage points year on year, and the period expense ratio increased 1.48 percentage points year on year. The company's comprehensive gross margin during the reporting period was 20.40%, up 1.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The company's period expense ratio during the reporting period was 17.89%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the sales/management/finance expense ratio was 1.81%/15.08%/1.00%, respectively, a change of -0.33/ 1.38/ 0.43 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The sharp decline in the sales expense ratio is mainly due to a reduction in subsidiary closure expenses. Looking at a quarterly split, the 3Q2016 period fee rate is 18.53%, the highest value in the past three years, and is worth focusing on. The company's property value is still outstanding, and there are investment opportunities: the company's performance continues to decline, and the property value is still outstanding. The main reason is: 1) The company's current market value is small, less than 4 billion yuan. 2) The company's equity is concentrated. The top four shareholders are Shenyang Zhongxing Commercial Group Co., Ltd. (33.86%), Hangzhou Rushan Venture Capital Co., Ltd. (10.04%), Dashang Investment Management Co., Ltd. (10.03%), and Dashang Group Co., Ltd. (9.97%). 3) The actual controller of the company is the Shenyang Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The Shenyang Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission did not succeed in transferring the company's shares in the early stages. Under the current situation where economic growth in Liaoning Province is weak and the fiscal pressure is high, it is more likely that the Shenyang Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission will continue to promote the company's equity concessions. Adjust the profit forecast and maintain the purchase rating and target price: We adjusted the company's profit forecast and predicted that the company's 2016-2018 EPS would be 0.28/0.30/0.31 yuan (the previous forecast was 0.22/0.24/0.25 yuan). Although the company's traditional retail stores continue to be sluggish, given the expectations of the Shenyang Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission to sell the company's shares, we maintain our purchase rating and a six-month target price of 20 yuan. Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate fell short of expectations, and the growth rate of consumer demand fell short of expectations.

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