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宁波建工(601789)公告点评:主业运行平稳 IDC机柜进展顺利

華泰證券 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The first three quarters were running smoothly, and China Economic Cloud IDC's business progressed smoothly. Recently, it published its three-quarter report and responses to inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The company operated smoothly in the first three quarters, with revenue and net profit increasing by -3.0% and -8.5%, respectively. Q3 Revenue and profit fell 11.6% and 18.7% year on year due to project carry-over and base figures (last year's abnormal Q3 profit was greater than Q4). The year-on-year growth rate is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. In the response letter, the company disclosed that the first phase of the Zhongjing Yunyizhuang IDC cabinet project has obtained a fire protection completion inspection record, signed a service contract for the first order of 69 cabinets, and signed a pre-sale agreement for 1,700 cabinets. Overall, progress has been smooth. China Economic Cloud has excellent quality, reasonable profit forecasts, and the overall progress is smooth. In this restructuring, the shares of the National Information Center in China Jingyun have been preserved, and the excellent qualifications of China Economic Cloud have continued. The IDC computer room in Yizhuang is expected to be put into operation in February 2017. Considering the cabinet rental period, the evaluation agency gave the 2017-2019 profit forecasts of $0.83, 228, and 233 million yuan. The management of China Economic Cloud promises that the annual performance will not fall below this profit forecast value. Based on the 36% net profit margin assumption in the response letter, it can be estimated that the rental revenue for a single cabinet is 58,000 yuan, which is in line with what we know about the Beijing IDC cabinet rental market price. Furthermore, it was revealed that the first phase of the IDC cabinet project has obtained a fire completion inspection record, signed a service contract for the first order of 69 cabinets, and signed a pre-sale agreement for 1,700 cabinets. Overall, it is progressing smoothly. The direct and indirect shareholding ratio of the company's core executives has increased, and the governance structure of the company has been greatly improved. The shareholding ratio is scattered and mostly indirect, and as the older generation of executives retreats to the second tier, the current executive team's shareholding ratio is low (we roughly calculate that the shareholding ratio of 13 executives is around 13%). An employee stock ownership plan was introduced in this additional issuance process, and the equity ratio reached 5.8%. At the same time, in September, through capital increases and stock expansion at the level of controlling shareholder Guangtian Sun Moon and internal equity transfers, a significant increase in the indirect shareholding ratio of current executives, led by the chairman of the board, was achieved. We roughly estimate that the overall shareholding ratio of current executives will reach more than 18%. In addition, Sun Maojin, the original actual controller of China Economic Cloud, is expected to hold more than 14% of shares. He will become the individual with the largest shareholding ratio in the company, and his team will also hold shares in listed companies by subscribing to additional issues. Therefore, if the plan is implemented normally, the company's operating performance and stock price will be more closely tied to future company leaders, and the corporate governance structure will be greatly improved. China Economic Cloud cooperates closely with the National Shield of the University of Science and Technology. The company will become one of the purest quantum communication targets. China Economic Cloud holds 45% of the shares in China Economic Communications. Beijing Guodun Quantum Information Technology Co., Ltd. and the China Development Finance Promotion Association hold 40% and 15% of the shares in China Economic Communications, respectively. China Economic Cloud and Guoshield, the originator of quantum communication technology, established a joint venture between China Economic Cloud and the University of Science and Technology Guodun as a commercial promoter of quantum communication. We believe that in the future, China Economic Cloud will benefit from the commercial promotion of quantum communication in three areas: 1) increasing the premium for IDC products 2) obtaining quantum communication channel fees 3) obtaining commercial consulting service fees. After holding Zhongjing Cloud, the company will become a pure target for quantum communication. Maintain the “buy” rating for the time being without considering the impact of restructuring and additional issuance, maintain the company's profit forecast of 0.25/0.29/0.35 yuan EPS for 2016-2018. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies at home and abroad, approval was given 32 to 40 times 16 years of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomy continues to be sluggish; the prosperity of the real estate industry is declining.

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